OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Lerryan Douglas 81% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Jamall Emmers / KO/TKO)

Jamall Emmers vs Lerryan Douglas

Jamall Emmers
USAUSA

Jamall Emmers

“Pretty Boy”

Unranked · 22-8 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 58

Pinnacle MMA · USA

VS
Lerryan Douglas
BrazilBrazil

Lerryan Douglas

“Gunslinger”

Unranked · 14-5 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 69

Bloodline Combat · Brazil

Jamall Emmers

18.6%

Lerryan Douglas

81.4%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

18.6% / 81.4%

Market

23.4% / 76.6%

Moneyline

+315 / -372

Edge

−4.8% Douglas

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Douglas. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Douglas 81 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Lerryan Douglas is the model side at 81.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Emmers (ground 50) into Douglas (TD reaction 57). Timing & reaction is the clearest separator: Douglas 67 (C+) vs Emmers 30 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Douglas.

  1. 01

    Timing & reaction

    Douglas

    Douglas 67 (C+) vs Emmers 30 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Douglas.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Douglas

    Douglas 85 (A) vs Emmers 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Douglas (8.7 SLpM at 66%).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Emmers

    Emmers 50 (C) vs Douglas 16 (D). Emmers brings 2.6 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Douglas's 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Douglas

    Douglas 57 (C) vs Emmers 29 (D). When the shot comes, Douglas stuffs it at 85% — Emmers is at 0%.

Path · Emmers

Emmers has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Douglas defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.

Path · Douglas

Douglas has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 48 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Emmers attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Douglas is built as: Volume pressure striker. Emmers is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +11 toward Douglas — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Timing & reaction: Douglas 67 (C+) vs Emmers 30 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Douglas. Punching agility: Douglas 85 (A) vs Emmers 49 (D). Hand speed / output lean Douglas (8.7 SLpM at 66%). Ground game: Emmers 50 (C) vs Douglas 16 (D). Emmers brings 2.6 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Douglas's 85% takedown defense.

The finish path leans strikes (28% KO/TKO vs 25% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Emmers attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

EmmersTraitDouglas
58 C
IQ
69 B
50 C
Ground
16 D
48 D
Defense
73 B
34 D
Counter
44 D
30 D
Reaction
67 C+
49 D
Agility
85 A
29 D
TD react
57 C
83 B+
Chin
73 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
25%
Decision
46%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

15%

R3

15%

Dist

46%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Emmers (ground 50) into Douglas (TD reaction 57).

  • Damage ratio

    1.69 vs 4.74 landed/absorbed

    Douglas

  • Striking differential

    2.63 vs 4.94 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Douglas

  • Ground game (tape)

    50 vs 16

    Emmers

  • Takedown reaction

    0% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Douglas

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Douglas

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Douglas

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs B

    Douglas

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Douglas

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Douglas

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 64%

    Douglas

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 44

    Douglas

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Emmers

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Emmers

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Emmers (ground 50) into Douglas (TD reaction 57).

    Emmers

  • Age-adjusted curve

    37 vs 31

    Douglas

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 72.0"

    Emmers

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 58 vs 50

    Emmers

  • Striking defense

    51% vs 53%

    Douglas

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 35% vs 88%

    Douglas

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Douglas

  • Output (SLpM)

    6.45 vs 6.27

    Emmers

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Douglas

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Emmers

Tape

EmmersMetricDouglas
5.10SLpM8.67
3.93SApM1.57
52%Str Acc66%
50%Str Def51%
2.59TD Avg0.00
53%TD Acc0%
0%TD Def85%
0.32Sub Avg0.00
0.00KD/150.29
6'2"Reach6'0"
37Age31

Jamall Emmers

W

Fighter 5027356

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 8, 2025
W

Fighter 2558526

KO/TKO · R1 4:06

Mar 29, 2025
L

Fighter 3821549

KO/TKO · R1 4:43

Mar 30, 2024
W

Fighter 4686735

KO/TKO · R1 0:49

Nov 11, 2023
L

Jack Jenkins

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jun 24, 2023
W

Fighter 4218576

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 18, 2023

Lerryan Douglas

W

Fighter 3955577

KO/TKO · R1 3:33

Mar 29, 2026
W

Fighter 5222338

KO/TKO · R1 0:36

Sep 10, 2025
W

Fighter 4424219

TKO (Punches) · R2 2:35

Jan 26, 2025
W

Fighter 4687104

KO/TKO · R2 2:56

Aug 24, 2024
W

Fighter 4781801

KO/TKO · R2 0:45

May 18, 2024
W

Fighter 5125478

KO/TKO · R1 1:38

Nov 18, 2023

Your pick

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