OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Marcio Barbosa 86% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Marcio Barbosa / KO/TKO)

Marcio Barbosa vs Ryan Kuse

Marcio Barbosa
BrazilBrazil

Marcio Barbosa

“Ticoto”

Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 69

Giants Team · Brazil

VS
RK
USAUSA

Ryan Kuse

“Third Street Savage”

Unranked · 9-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C+ 66

USA

Marcio Barbosa

85.6%

Ryan Kuse

14.4%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

85.6% / 14.4%

Market

86.9% / 13.1%

Moneyline

-850 / +644

Edge

−1.4% Kuse

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Kuse. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Barbosa 86 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Marcio Barbosa is the model side at 85.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Barbosa 70 (B) vs Kuse 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Barbosa (7.0 SLpM at 48%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 70 (B) vs Kuse 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Barbosa (7.0 SLpM at 48%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 73 (B) vs Kuse 57 (C). Barbosa absorbs 2.15/min at 54% defense; Kuse is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Kuse

    Kuse 87 (A) vs Barbosa 76 (B+). Kuse has been finished by strikes 0 times; Barbosa 0.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Barbosa

    Barbosa 67 (C+) vs Kuse 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Barbosa.

Path · Barbosa

Volume. Barbosa wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Kuse a clean reset.

Path · Kuse

Kuse wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Barbosa a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Kuse attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Barbosa is built as: Volume pressure striker. Kuse is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Barbosa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Barbosa 70 (B) vs Kuse 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Barbosa (7.0 SLpM at 48%). Striking defense: Barbosa 73 (B) vs Kuse 57 (C). Barbosa absorbs 2.15/min at 54% defense; Kuse is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Durability: Kuse 87 (A) vs Barbosa 76 (B+). Kuse has been finished by strikes 0 times; Barbosa 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Kuse attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BarbosaTraitKuse
69 B
IQ
66 C+
14 D
Ground
12 D
73 B
Defense
57 C
33 D
Counter
37 D
67 C+
Reaction
59 C
70 B
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
76 B+
Chin
87 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
12%
Decision
61%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

10%

R3

11%

Dist

61%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.7 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    2.21 vs -3.88 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Barbosa

  • Damage ratio

    2.14 vs 0.13 landed/absorbed

    Barbosa

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.14 vs 0.60

    Barbosa

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 22%

    Barbosa

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 69%

    Kuse

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Barbosa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Barbosa

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Barbosa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Kuse

  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Barbosa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Barbosa

  • Counter punching

    33 vs 37

    Kuse

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 12

    Barbosa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 32

    Barbosa

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Barbosa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 52 vs 48

    Barbosa

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 70.0"

    Barbosa

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Barbosa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 86%

    Barbosa

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Barbosa

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Barbosa

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Barbosa

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Barbosa

Tape

BarbosaMetricKuse
7.01SLpM0.00
2.15SApM4.60
48%Str Acc0%
54%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.28KD/150.10
5'11"Reach—
28Age32

Marcio Barbosa

W

Fighter 4686735

KO/TKO · R1 1:20

Apr 18, 2026
W

Fighter 4915407

KO/TKO · R1 4:14

Aug 27, 2025
W

Fighter 5256941

KO/TKO · R1 2:54

Nov 22, 2024
W

Fighter 5185661

KO/TKO · R1 3:08

Nov 4, 2023
W

Fighter 4868779

KO/TKO · R1 2:40

Jul 8, 2023
L

Fighter 5109762

KO/TKO · R2 0:09

Nov 5, 2022

Ryan Kuse

W

Fighter 5399184

TKO (Punches) · R2 4:39

Apr 5, 2026
W

Fighter 4426319

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 25, 2025
L

Fighter 5144320

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Apr 21, 2024
W

Fighter 5110041

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 17, 2024
L

Fighter 3155423

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 18, 2022
W

Fighter 4845285

KO/TKO · R1 3:49

Mar 4, 2022

Your pick

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