UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Nasrat Haqparast 84% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Chris Padilla / Submission)
Chris Padilla vs Nasrat Haqparast
USAChris Padilla
“Taco”
Unranked · 17-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 63
Fight Science MMA · USA
MoroccoNasrat Haqparast
Unranked · 18-6 · striker · Southpaw · 30 · IQ C+ 67
TriStar Gym · Morocco
Chris Padilla
16.2%
Nasrat Haqparast
83.8%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
Desk
16.2% / 83.8%
Market
52.2% / 47.8%
Moneyline
-116 / +103
Edge
−36.0% Haqparast
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Haqparast. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Haqparast 84 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Nasrat Haqparast is the model side at 83.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Padilla (ground 34) into Haqparast (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Haqparast 70 (B) vs Padilla 30 (D). Haqparast absorbs 2.37/min at 55% defense; Padilla is a softer target at 7.47 SApM.
- 01
Striking defense
HaqparastHaqparast 70 (B) vs Padilla 30 (D). Haqparast absorbs 2.37/min at 55% defense; Padilla is a softer target at 7.47 SApM.
- 02
Timing & reaction
HaqparastHaqparast 66 (C+) vs Padilla 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Haqparast.
- 03
Ground game
PadillaPadilla 34 (D) vs Haqparast 16 (D). Padilla brings 1.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Haqparast's 84% takedown defense.
- 04
Punching agility
HaqparastHaqparast 66 (C+) vs Padilla 59 (C). Hand speed / output lean Haqparast (6.4 SLpM at 47%).
Path · Padilla
Padilla has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Haqparast defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Haqparast
Haqparast has to stuff the first takedown (63 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 30 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Padilla attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Haqparast is built as: Volume pressure striker — southpaw. Padilla is built as: Volume pressure striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Haqparast — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Haqparast 70 (B) vs Padilla 30 (D). Haqparast absorbs 2.37/min at 55% defense; Padilla is a softer target at 7.47 SApM. Timing & reaction: Haqparast 66 (C+) vs Padilla 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Haqparast. Ground game: Padilla 34 (D) vs Haqparast 16 (D). Padilla brings 1.1 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Haqparast's 84% takedown defense.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Padilla attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
22%
R2
14%
R3
15%
Dist
50%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Padilla (ground 34) into Haqparast (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-1.24 vs 4.83 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
HaqparastDamage ratio
0.81 vs 3.09 landed/absorbed
HaqparastPocket defense (tape)
D vs B
HaqparastStriking defense
40% vs 56%
HaqparastRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 5/6 UFC rows
PadillaGround game (tape)
34 vs 16
PadillaOutput (SLpM)
5.16 vs 7.13
HaqparastTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
HaqparastStriking efficiency
56% vs 47%
PadillaCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
HaqparastFight IQ
C+ 63 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
HaqparastGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
PadillaStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Padilla (ground 34) into Haqparast (TD reaction 63). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
PadillaPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
HaqparastDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
HaqparastReach / length
74.0" vs 72.0"
PadillaTakedown reaction
83% vs 84% hips on the shot
HaqparastCounter punching
32 vs 34
HaqparastStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 56 vs 59
HaqparastLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
PadillaTakedown mismatch
TD def 86% vs 84%
HaqparastAge-adjusted curve
30 vs 30
PadillaChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Padilla
Tape
Chris Padilla
MarQuel Mederos
Draw · R3 5:00
Fighter 3093513
KO/TKO · R2 4:30
Fighter 4078246
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4773371
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R2 4:14
Fighter 5075748
Submission · R1 4:33
Fighter 3112009
KO/TKO · R2 3:10
Nasrat Haqparast
Fighter 5157667
KO/TKO · R1 2:30
Fighter 5074131
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 3894823
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4064883
KO/TKO · R1 1:44
Fighter 4690546
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 2529520
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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