OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gauge Young 86% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Stan Dorsainvil / Decision - Unanimous)

Gauge Young vs Stan Dorsainvil

Gauge Young
USAUSA

Gauge Young

“Gee Money”

Unranked · 11-3 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C 58

Ignite Jiu-Jitsu · USA

VS
SD
USAUSA

Stan Dorsainvil

“The Drill”

Unranked · 5-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B 73

Combat Club · USA

Gauge Young

85.7%

Stan Dorsainvil

14.3%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

85.7% / 14.3%

Market

60.2% / 39.8%

Moneyline

-163 / +144

Edge

+25.5% Young

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Young. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Young 86 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Gauge Young is the model side at 85.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Young 70 (B) vs Dorsainvil 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Young (6.3 SLpM at 54%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Young

    Young 70 (B) vs Dorsainvil 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Young (6.3 SLpM at 54%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Young

    Young 73 (B) vs Dorsainvil 57 (C). Young absorbs 2.39/min at 55% defense; Dorsainvil is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Dorsainvil

    Dorsainvil 73 (B) vs Young 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Dorsainvil (B vs C).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Dorsainvil

    Dorsainvil 69 (B) vs Young 58 (C). When the shot comes, Dorsainvil stuffs it at 85% — Young is at 82%.

Path · Young

Volume. Young wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Dorsainvil a clean reset.

Path · Dorsainvil

Dorsainvil wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Young a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Dorsainvil attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Young is built as: Volume pressure striker. Dorsainvil is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -16 toward Dorsainvil — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Young 70 (B) vs Dorsainvil 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Young (6.3 SLpM at 54%). Striking defense: Young 73 (B) vs Dorsainvil 57 (C). Young absorbs 2.39/min at 55% defense; Dorsainvil is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Fight IQ: Dorsainvil 73 (B) vs Young 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Dorsainvil (B vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (67%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Dorsainvil attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

YoungTraitDorsainvil
58 C
IQ
73 B
24 D
Ground
21 D
73 B
Defense
57 C
33 D
Counter
37 D
64 C+
Reaction
59 C
70 B
Agility
39 D
58 C
TD react
69 B
87 A
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
13%
Decision
67%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

13%

R2

9%

R3

11%

Dist

67%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.4 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    3.43 vs -3.76 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Young

  • Damage ratio

    2.50 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Young

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.72 vs 0.60

    Young

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 22%

    Young

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Dorsainvil

  • Striking defense

    56% vs 70%

    Dorsainvil

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Young

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/5 UFC rows

    Dorsainvil

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Young

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Dorsainvil

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Young

  • Counter punching

    33 vs 37

    Dorsainvil

  • Ground game (tape)

    24 vs 21

    Young

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Young

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Young

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Young

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 71.0"

    Dorsainvil

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 48

    Young

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 88%

    Dorsainvil

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 26

    Young

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Young

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Young

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Young

Tape

YoungMetricDorsainvil
6.32SLpM0.00
2.39SApM4.60
54%Str Acc0%
55%Str Def68%
0.75TD Avg0.00
30%TD Acc0%
82%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach—
26Age26

Gauge Young

W

Fighter 3955778

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Apr 19, 2026
W

Fighter 4895360

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 23, 2025
L

Fighter 5037883

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 26, 2025
W

Fighter 5279286

TKO (Punches) · R2 0:11

Dec 6, 2024
L

Fighter 5157667

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 4, 2024
W

Fighter 5213033

KO/TKO · R1 5:00

May 3, 2024

Stan Dorsainvil

W

Fighter 5398667

KO/TKO · R3 4:06

May 22, 2026
W

Fighter 5398666

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 3:34

Nov 16, 2024
W

Fighter 5398665

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 12, 2024
W

Fighter 5398664

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 1:00

Jun 2, 2023
W

Fighter 4699454

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 2:48

Jan 20, 2023

Your pick

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