OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Anthony Wint 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Anthony Wint / Submission)

Anthony Wint vs Terrance Chatman

AW
USAUSA

Anthony Wint

Unranked · 7-0 · striker · Orthodox · 30 · IQ A 84

Kill Cliff FC · USA

VS
TC
USAUSA

Terrance Chatman

“The Answer”

Unranked · 5-1 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ C+ 64

USA

Anthony Wint

91.0%

Terrance Chatman

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

Desk

91.0% / 9.0%

Market

86.8% / 13.2%

Moneyline

-840 / +638

Edge

+4.2% Wint

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Wint. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Wint 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Anthony Wint is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Wint 88 (A) vs Chatman 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Wint (22.9 SLpM at 72%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Wint

    Wint 88 (A) vs Chatman 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Wint (22.9 SLpM at 72%).

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Wint

    Wint 84 (A) vs Chatman 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Wint (A vs C+).

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Wint

    Wint 48 (D) vs Chatman 37 (D). Wint's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Chatman's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Wint

    Wint 66 (C+) vs Chatman 57 (C). Wint absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Chatman is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Wint

Volume. Wint wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Chatman a clean reset.

Path · Chatman

Chatman wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Wint a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chatman attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Wint is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver. Chatman is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +19 toward Wint — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Wint 88 (A) vs Chatman 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Wint (22.9 SLpM at 72%). Fight IQ: Wint 84 (A) vs Chatman 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Wint (A vs C+). Counter punching: Wint 48 (D) vs Chatman 37 (D). Wint's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Chatman's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Chatman attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WintTraitChatman
84 A
IQ
64 C+
15 D
Ground
12 D
66 C+
Defense
57 C
48 D
Counter
37 D
61 C+
Reaction
59 C
88 A
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
81 B+
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
39%
Submission
10%
Decision
50%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

13%

R3

13%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.7 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs -3.86 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Wint

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 0.13 landed/absorbed

    Wint

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 0.60

    Wint

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 22%

    Wint

  • Striking defense

    44% vs 69%

    Chatman

  • Fight IQ

    A 84 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Wint

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Wint

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Wint

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Wint

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 37

    Wint

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Wint

  • Reach / length

    78.0" vs 75.0"

    Wint

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 12

    Wint

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 29

    Chatman

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 51 vs 48

    Wint

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Chatman

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Wint

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Wint

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Wint

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 87%

    Wint

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Wint

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Wint

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Wint

Tape

WintMetricChatman
22.94SLpM0.00
1.40SApM4.60
72%Str Acc0%
42%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.40KD/150.10
6'6"Reach—
30Age29

Anthony Wint

W

Fighter 5364347

KO/TKO · R1 0:34

Aug 11, 2026
W

Fighter 2988608

KO/TKO · R1 0:37

Mar 15, 2026
W

Fighter 5189564

KO/TKO · R1 0:21

Nov 21, 2025
W

Fighter 4423432

KO/TKO · R3 4:02

Jun 25, 2025
W

Fighter 5350740

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 23, 2025
W

Fighter 5350720

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 0:43

Jun 14, 2024

Terrance Chatman

W

Fighter 3962476

KO/TKO · R1 3:32

Jul 19, 2026
L

Fighter 2515787

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Apr 12, 2026
W

Fighter 5350740

KO/TKO · R1 0:21

Jan 18, 2026
W

Fighter 5399173

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 7, 2025
W

Fighter 5399172

KO/TKO · R2 4:11

Jun 22, 2025
W

Fighter 5399171

TKO (Doctor's Stoppage) · R1 5:00

Feb 21, 2025

Your pick

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