OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mason Jones 71% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (MarQuel Mederos / KO/TKO)

MarQuel Mederos vs Mason Jones

MarQuel Mederos
USAUSA

MarQuel Mederos

Unranked · 11-1-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 75

FactoryX Muay Thai · USA

VS
Mason Jones
WalesWales

Mason Jones

“The Dragon”

Unranked · 18-2 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ B 73

Pedro Bessa BJJ · Wales

MarQuel Mederos

29.5%

Mason Jones

70.5%

Model win probability · confidence 81%

Desk

29.5% / 70.5%

Market

23.5% / 76.5%

Moneyline

+313 / -370

Edge

+6.0% Mederos

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk leans off the market on Mederos. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Jones 71 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Mason Jones is the model side at 70.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Jones (ground 58) into Mederos (TD reaction 59). Ground game is the clearest separator: Jones 58 (C) vs Mederos 14 (D). Jones brings 3.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Mederos's 75% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Jones

    Jones 58 (C) vs Mederos 14 (D). Jones brings 3.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Mederos's 75% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Jones

    Jones 50 (C) vs Mederos 32 (D). Jones absorbs 4.33/min at 52% defense; Mederos is a softer target at 9.80 SApM.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Mederos

    Mederos 39 (D) vs Jones 28 (D). Mederos's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Jones's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Mederos

    Mederos 59 (C) vs Jones 49 (D). When the shot comes, Mederos stuffs it at 75% — Jones is at 57%.

Path · Mederos

Mederos has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 50 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Jones

Jones has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Mederos defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Jones is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Mederos is built as: Volume pressure striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Mederos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Jones 58 (C) vs Mederos 14 (D). Jones brings 3.5 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Mederos's 75% takedown defense. Striking defense: Jones 50 (C) vs Mederos 32 (D). Jones absorbs 4.33/min at 52% defense; Mederos is a softer target at 9.80 SApM. Counter punching: Mederos 39 (D) vs Jones 28 (D). Mederos's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Jones's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MederosTraitJones
75 B
IQ
73 B
14 D
Ground
58 C
32 D
Defense
50 C
39 D
Counter
28 D
35 D
Reaction
38 D
55 C
Agility
54 C
59 C
TD react
49 D
90 A
Chin
91 A+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
25%
Decision
50%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Jones (ground 58) into Mederos (TD reaction 59).

  • Striking differential

    -1.51 vs 1.05 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jones

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 58

    Jones

  • Damage ratio

    0.76 vs 1.25 landed/absorbed

    Jones

  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 44%

    Mederos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jones

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs C

    Jones

  • Striking defense

    47% vs 54%

    Jones

  • Takedown reaction

    75% vs 57% hips on the shot

    Mederos

  • Reach / length

    69.5" vs 74.0"

    Jones

  • Counter punching

    39 vs 28

    Mederos

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Jones (ground 58) into Mederos (TD reaction 59).

    Jones

  • Fight IQ

    B 75 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Mederos

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.89 vs 5.15

    Jones

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jones

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 5/6 UFC rows

    Jones

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 54

    Jones

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jones

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 31

    Mederos

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Mederos

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 60%

    Jones

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jones

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Mederos

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Mederos

Tape

MederosMetricJones
5.46SLpM5.98
9.80SApM4.33
60%Str Acc48%
46%Str Def52%
0.23TD Avg3.48
8%TD Acc55%
75%TD Def57%
0.00Sub Avg0.17
0.00KD/150.00
5'10"Reach6'2"
29Age31

MarQuel Mederos

D

Chris Padilla

Draw · R3 5:00

Apr 11, 2026
W

Fighter 5289736

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 7, 2025
W

Fighter 4397797

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 29, 2025
W

Fighter 4690546

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 3, 2024
W

Fighter 4683526

KO/TKO · R1 4:09

Oct 11, 2023
W

Fighter 5157702

KO/TKO · R1 0:53

Jun 25, 2023

Mason Jones

W

Axel Sola

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 5145682

KO/TKO · R2 3:18

Sep 6, 2025
W

Fighter 2335673

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 4, 2025
W

Fighter 5220879

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 25, 2024
W

Fighter 3961957

KO/TKO · R2 2:45

Feb 23, 2024
W

Fighter 5125407

KO/TKO · R2 4:24

Oct 14, 2023

Your pick

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