OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Hunter Smith vs Adam Livingston

HS
USAUSA

Hunter Smith

“Headshot”

Unranked · 8-1 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ C 53

Performance Evolution Training Center · USA

VS
Adam Livingston
USAUSA

Adam Livingston

“Bomb”

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ D 49

Long Island MMA · USA

Hunter Smith

51.0%

Adam Livingston

49.0%

Model win probability · confidence 58%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Smith 51 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Hunter Smith is the model side at 51.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Smith 37 (D) vs Livingston 26 (D). Smith's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Livingston's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Smith

    Smith 37 (D) vs Livingston 26 (D). Smith's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Livingston's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Smith

    Smith 39 (D) vs Livingston 28 (D). Hand speed / output lean Smith (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Livingston

    Livingston 66 (C+) vs Smith 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Livingston.

  4. 04

    Durability

    Smith

    Smith 87 (A) vs Livingston 83 (B+). Smith has been finished by strikes 0 times; Livingston 0.

Path · Smith

Smith wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Livingston a long look at durability.

Path · Livingston

Livingston wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Smith a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Smith is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Livingston is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Smith — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Smith 37 (D) vs Livingston 26 (D). Smith's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Livingston's entries. Punching agility: Smith 39 (D) vs Livingston 28 (D). Hand speed / output lean Smith (0.0 SLpM at 0%). Timing & reaction: Livingston 66 (C+) vs Smith 59 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Livingston.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SmithTraitLivingston
53 C
IQ
49 D
12 D
Ground
15 D
57 C
Defense
61 C+
37 D
Counter
26 D
59 C
Reaction
66 C+
39 D
Agility
28 D
51 C
TD react
51 C
87 A
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
25%
Decision
55%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 33%

    Livingston

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 26

    Smith

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Smith

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs D 49 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Smith

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Smith

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Livingston

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C+

    Livingston

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 71.5"

    Livingston

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 15

    Livingston

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Smith

  • Striking differential

    -3.82 vs -3.75 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Livingston

  • Striking defense

    69% vs 68%

    Smith

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Smith

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Smith

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Smith

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Livingston

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Livingston

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Smith

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 86%

    Smith

  • Age-adjusted curve

    27 vs 25

    Smith

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Smith

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Smith

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Smith

Tape

SmithMetricLivingston
0.00SLpM0.36
4.60SApM4.47
0%Str Acc33%
68%Str Def67%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach5'12"
27Age25

Hunter Smith

W

Fighter 5369644

KO/TKO · R1 1:16

Mar 7, 2026
W

Fighter 4781198

KO/TKO · R2 2:06

Nov 22, 2025
W

Fighter 4689793

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5369645

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Nov 23, 2024
L

Fighter 5369644

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 0:56

Jun 22, 2024
W

Fighter 5369643

KO/TKO · R1 0:32

Feb 24, 2024

Adam Livingston

W

Fighter 5364356

KO/TKO · R2 3:58

May 15, 2026
L

Fighter 5307814

Submission · R1 2:47

Sep 17, 2025
W

Fighter 5308114

TKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R2 5:00

Jun 20, 2025
W

Fighter 5152946

KO/TKO · R1 1:50

Oct 19, 2024
W

Fighter 5308113

KO/TKO · R2 3:13

Oct 21, 2023
W

Fighter 5308112

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 17, 2023

Your pick

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