OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Gabriel Lourenço vs Charlie Cleveland

GL
BrazilBrazil

Gabriel Lourenço

“Black Mamba”

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 0 · IQ C+ 66

Chute Boxe · Brazil

VS
CC
USAUSA

Charlie Cleveland

“The Reaper”

Unranked · 6-1 · hybrid · -- · 28 · IQ C 55

Demolition Fight Team · USA

Gabriel Lourenço

55.1%

Charlie Cleveland

44.9%

Model win probability · confidence 63%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Lourenço 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Gabriel Lourenço is the model side at 55.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Lourenço 69 (B) vs Cleveland 51 (C). When the shot comes, Lourenço stuffs it at 85% — Cleveland is at 85%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Lourenço

    Lourenço 69 (B) vs Cleveland 51 (C). When the shot comes, Lourenço stuffs it at 85% — Cleveland is at 85%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Lourenço

    Lourenço 66 (C+) vs Cleveland 55 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lourenço (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Cleveland

    Cleveland 39 (D) vs Lourenço 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Cleveland (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Cleveland

    Cleveland 59 (C) vs Lourenço 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Cleveland.

Path · Lourenço

Lourenço wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Cleveland a long look at durability.

Path · Cleveland

Cleveland wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Lourenço a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Lourenço is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Cleveland is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +11 toward Lourenço — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Lourenço 69 (B) vs Cleveland 51 (C). When the shot comes, Lourenço stuffs it at 85% — Cleveland is at 85%. Fight IQ: Lourenço 66 (C+) vs Cleveland 55 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lourenço (C+ vs C). Punching agility: Cleveland 39 (D) vs Lourenço 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Cleveland (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

The finish path leans strikes (30% KO/TKO vs 25% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

LourençoTraitCleveland
66 C+
IQ
55 C
15 D
Ground
15 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
58 C
Reaction
59 C
38 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
51 C
83 B+
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
25%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Lourenço

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 66 vs C 55 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lourenço

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Lourenço

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 77.0"

    Cleveland

  • Striking differential

    -3.76 vs -3.82 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Lourenço

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Cleveland

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 50

    Cleveland

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Cleveland

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 70%

    Lourenço

  • Ground game (tape)

    15 vs 15

    Cleveland

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Cleveland

  • Age-adjusted curve

    0 vs 28

    Lourenço

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Lourenço

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Lourenço

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Lourenço

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Lourenço

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 87%

    Lourenço

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Lourenço

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Lourenço

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Lourenço

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Lourenço

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Lourenço

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lourenço

Tape

LourençoMetricCleveland
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
—Reach6'5"
0Age28

Gabriel Lourenço

W

Fighter 5351908

KO/TKO · R1 -

Nov 15, 2025
W

Fighter 5400557

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 0:56

Oct 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5313285

TKO (Injury) · R1 1:45

Jun 28, 2025
W

Fighter 5400556

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Nov 30, 2024
W

Fighter 5400555

KO/TKO · R1 0:40

Sep 29, 2024
W

Fighter 5344696

KO/TKO · R1 4:40

Nov 12, 2023

Charlie Cleveland

W

Fighter 4917675

KO/TKO · R1 3:10

Apr 3, 2026
W

Fighter 5364830

KO/TKO · R1 1:03

Feb 6, 2026
W

Fighter 4493895

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Dec 20, 2025
W

Fighter 5369634

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:47

Oct 25, 2025
L

Fighter 5369555

Submission (Americana) · R2 3:07

Jun 7, 2025
W

Fighter 5327750

KO/TKO · R1 0:51

Apr 12, 2025

Your pick

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