OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Liam McCracken vs Silvestre Sanchez

LM
EnglandEngland

Liam McCracken

Unranked · 8-1 · hybrid · -- · 25 · IQ B 71

Aspire Combat Sports Academy · England

VS
SS
MexicoMexico

Silvestre Sanchez

“Gorilla”

Unranked · 9-1 · hybrid · -- · 24 · IQ B 71

UFC Performance Institute · Mexico

Liam McCracken

50.0%

Silvestre Sanchez

50.0%

Model win probability · confidence 57%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sanchez 50 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Silvestre Sanchez is the model side at 50.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Ground game is the clearest separator: Sanchez 21 (D) vs McCracken 19 (D). Sanchez brings 0.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into McCracken's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Sanchez

    Sanchez 21 (D) vs McCracken 19 (D). Sanchez brings 0.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into McCracken's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    McCracken

    McCracken 39 (D) vs Sanchez 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean McCracken (0.0 SLpM at 0%).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    McCracken

    McCracken 59 (C) vs Sanchez 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with McCracken.

  4. 04

    Durability

    McCracken

    McCracken 80 (B+) vs Sanchez 79 (B+). McCracken has been finished by strikes 0 times; Sanchez 0.

Path · McCracken

McCracken wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Sanchez a long look at durability.

Path · Sanchez

Sanchez wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying McCracken a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Sanchez is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. McCracken is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +0 toward Sanchez — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Sanchez 21 (D) vs McCracken 19 (D). Sanchez brings 0.0 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into McCracken's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: McCracken 39 (D) vs Sanchez 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean McCracken (0.0 SLpM at 0%). Timing & reaction: McCracken 59 (C) vs Sanchez 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with McCracken.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (49%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

McCrackenTraitSanchez
71 B
IQ
71 B
19 D
Ground
21 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
58 C
39 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
80 B+
Chin
79 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
30%
Decision
49%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

17%

Dist

49%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 21

    Sanchez

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McCracken

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    McCracken

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    McCracken

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    McCracken

  • Striking differential

    -3.78 vs -3.79 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McCracken

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 70%

    McCracken

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McCracken

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    McCracken

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    McCracken

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    McCracken

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    McCracken

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 87%

    McCracken

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 70.0"

    McCracken

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 24

    McCracken

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McCracken

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    McCracken

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    McCracken

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    McCracken

  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    McCracken

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    McCracken

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    McCracken

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    McCracken

Tape

McCrackenMetricSanchez
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach—
25Age24

Liam McCracken

W

Fighter 5307879

TKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R3 1:46

Jun 6, 2026
W

Fighter 5391315

KO/TKO · R1 0:39

Mar 7, 2026
W

Fighter 5391314

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 2:21

Sep 13, 2025
W

Fighter 3154256

KO/TKO · R1 -

Jul 9, 2023
W

Fighter 5391313

KO/TKO · R1 0:41

May 20, 2023
L

Fighter 4894845

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 25, 2023

Silvestre Sanchez

W

Fighter 5391389

KO/TKO · R1 0:18

Apr 24, 2026
W

Fighter 5391388

KO/TKO · R1 3:10

Nov 21, 2025
W

Fighter 5213188

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R3 2:03

Nov 29, 2024
W

Fighter 5391387

KO/TKO · R1 3:00

Aug 16, 2024
W

Fighter 5391385

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R3 2:28

Feb 25, 2024
L

Fighter 5350565

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 5, 2023

Your pick

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