OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 4 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Brandon Holmes vs Modestino Rodrigues

Brandon Holmes
USAUSA

Brandon Holmes

Unranked · 6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 62

TNT Martial Arts & Fitness · USA

VS
MR
BrazilBrazil

Modestino Rodrigues

“The Slenderman”

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 22 · IQ C+ 64

Revira Black Team · Brazil

Brandon Holmes

82.2%

Modestino Rodrigues

17.8%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Holmes 82 — the tape favors pocket striker

Brandon Holmes is the model side at 82.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Holmes 53 (C) vs Rodrigues 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Holmes (4.7 SLpM at 45%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Holmes

    Holmes 53 (C) vs Rodrigues 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Holmes (4.7 SLpM at 45%).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Holmes

    Holmes 87 (A) vs Rodrigues 74 (B). Holmes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Rodrigues 0.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Holmes

    Holmes 64 (C+) vs Rodrigues 55 (C). Holmes absorbs 2.95/min at 59% defense; Rodrigues is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Holmes

    Holmes 65 (C+) vs Rodrigues 58 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Holmes.

Path · Holmes

Volume. Holmes wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Rodrigues a clean reset.

Path · Rodrigues

Rodrigues wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Holmes a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rodrigues attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Holmes is built as: Pocket striker. Rodrigues is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -2 toward Rodrigues — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Holmes 53 (C) vs Rodrigues 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Holmes (4.7 SLpM at 45%). Durability: Holmes 87 (A) vs Rodrigues 74 (B). Holmes has been finished by strikes 0 times; Rodrigues 0. Striking defense: Holmes 64 (C+) vs Rodrigues 55 (C). Holmes absorbs 2.95/min at 59% defense; Rodrigues is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (68%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rodrigues attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HolmesTraitRodrigues
62 C+
IQ
64 C+
12 D
Ground
12 D
64 C+
Defense
55 C
34 D
Counter
37 D
65 C+
Reaction
58 C
53 C
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
87 A
Chin
74 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
24%
Submission
8%
Decision
68%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

9%

R3

10%

Dist

68%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.5 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.91 vs -3.81 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Holmes

  • Damage ratio

    1.67 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Holmes

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.73 vs 0.60

    Holmes

  • Striking efficiency

    45% vs 22%

    Holmes

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 69%

    Rodrigues

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Holmes

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Holmes

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Rodrigues

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Holmes

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Holmes

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Holmes

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Rodrigues

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 37

    Rodrigues

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 55 vs 48

    Holmes

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 75.0"

    Rodrigues

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 22

    Rodrigues

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Holmes

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Holmes

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Rodrigues

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 86% vs 87%

    Holmes

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Holmes

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 12

    Holmes

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Holmes

Tape

HolmesMetricRodrigues
4.72SLpM0.00
2.95SApM4.60
45%Str Acc0%
59%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'2"Reach—
29Age22

Brandon Holmes

W

Fighter 5350158

KO/TKO · R1 3:13

Jan 18, 2026
L

Fighter 4694832

KO/TKO · R1 2:58

Aug 20, 2025
W

Fighter 5078230

KO/TKO · R3 4:58

May 25, 2025
W

Nick Galanti

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 16, 2024
W

Fighter 5296769

KO/TKO · R1 1:13

May 4, 2024
W

Fighter 5296768

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jan 27, 2024

Modestino Rodrigues

W

Fighter 5369638

KO/TKO · R2 1:09

Jun 28, 2025
W

Fighter 5369636

KO/TKO · R1 1:05

Apr 5, 2025
W

Fighter 5320396

KO/TKO · R1 1:06

Sep 28, 2024
W

Fighter 4348609

KO/TKO · R2 0:32

Jul 20, 2024
L

Fighter 5369635

KO/TKO · R1 1:00

Mar 23, 2024
W

Fighter 4423433

KO/TKO · R1 0:27

Jan 27, 2024

Your pick

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