Losene Keita vs Muhammad Naimov

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Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Naimov is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Keita is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Naimov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Keita 79 (B+) vs Naimov 50 (D). When the shot comes, Keita stuffs it at 100% — Naimov is at 70%. Ground game: Naimov 34 (D) vs Keita 12 (D). Naimov brings 1.5 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Keita's 100% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Keita 64 (C+) vs Naimov 45 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Keita.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.