UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Oumar Sy 60% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Oumar Sy vs Modestas Bukauskas
FranceOumar Sy
Unranked · 12-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C+ 68
American Top Team · France
LithuaniaModestas Bukauskas
“The Baltic Gladiator”
Unranked · 20-7 · striker · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 65
Gintas Combat · Lithuania
Oumar Sy
60.0%
Modestas Bukauskas
40.0%
Model win probability · confidence 69%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Sy 60 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels
Oumar Sy is the model side at 60.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sy (ground 49) into Bukauskas (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Sy 83 (B+) vs Bukauskas 63 (C+). Sy absorbs 1.93/min at 66% defense; Bukauskas is a softer target at 3.50 SApM.
- 01
Striking defense
SySy 83 (B+) vs Bukauskas 63 (C+). Sy absorbs 1.93/min at 66% defense; Bukauskas is a softer target at 3.50 SApM.
- 02
Ground game
SySy 49 (D) vs Bukauskas 30 (D). Sy brings 2.5 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Bukauskas's 84% takedown defense.
- 03
Takedown reaction
BukauskasBukauskas 64 (C+) vs Sy 48 (D). When the shot comes, Bukauskas stuffs it at 84% — Sy is at 75%.
- 04
Durability
BukauskasBukauskas 89 (A) vs Sy 75 (B). Bukauskas has been finished by strikes 0 times; Sy 0.
Path · Sy
Sy has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Bukauskas defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.
Path · Bukauskas
Bukauskas has to stuff the first takedown (64 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 83 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sy is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Bukauskas is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Sy — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Sy 83 (B+) vs Bukauskas 63 (C+). Sy absorbs 1.93/min at 66% defense; Bukauskas is a softer target at 3.50 SApM. Ground game: Sy 49 (D) vs Bukauskas 30 (D). Sy brings 2.5 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Bukauskas's 84% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Bukauskas 64 (C+) vs Sy 48 (D). When the shot comes, Bukauskas stuffs it at 84% — Sy is at 75%.
The finish path leans strikes (32% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
26%
R2
16%
R3
16%
Dist
42%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Sy (ground 49) into Bukauskas (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Ground game (tape)
49 vs 30
SyStriking differential
0.70 vs -0.04 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
SyTakedown reaction
75% vs 84% hips on the shot
BukauskasPocket defense (tape)
B+ vs C+
SyDamage ratio
1.36 vs 0.99 landed/absorbed
SyReach / length
83.0" vs 76.0"
SyRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
BukauskasGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
SyDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
BukauskasOutput (SLpM)
2.62 vs 3.35
BukauskasStriking defense
66% vs 63%
SyStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Sy (ground 49) into Bukauskas (TD reaction 64). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
SyPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
SyFight IQ
C+ 68 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
SyTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
SyStriking efficiency
47% vs 45%
SyAge-adjusted curve
30 vs 32
SyTakedown mismatch
TD def 75% vs 85%
BukauskasCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
BukauskasStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 57 vs 53
SyCounter punching
47 vs 47
BukauskasLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
SyChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Sy
Tape
Oumar Sy
Fighter 3994033
Submission · R1 4:24
Fighter 4379328
KO/TKO · R1 4:42
Alonzo Menifield
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4389252
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4410698
Submission · R1 3:43
Fighter 2557025
KO/TKO · R1 1:21
Modestas Bukauskas
Fighter 4799517
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 3026263
KO/TKO · R3 4:57
Fighter 3946951
KO/TKO · R1 5:00
Fighter 3994033
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5212598
KO/TKO · R1 2:12
Fighter 3998068
Submission · R3 3:12
Your pick
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