UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Women's Bantamweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Klaudia Syguła 80% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Nora Cornolle
19.7%
Klaudia Syguła
80.3%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Klaudia Syguła is the model side at 80.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Cornolle 56 (C) vs Syguła 27 (D). Cornolle's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Syguła's entries.
Counter punching
CornolleCornolle 56 (C) vs Syguła 27 (D). Cornolle's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Syguła's entries.
Punching agility
SygułaSyguła 72 (B) vs Cornolle 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Syguła (7.3 SLpM at 53%).
Striking defense
SygułaSyguła 73 (B) vs Cornolle 62 (C+). Syguła absorbs 2.06/min at 54% defense; Cornolle is a softer target at 3.64 SApM.
Durability
SygułaSyguła 91 (A+) vs Cornolle 81 (B+). Syguła has been finished by strikes 0 times; Cornolle 0.
Path · Cornolle
Cornolle wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Syguła a long look at durability.
Path · Syguła
Volume. Syguła wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Cornolle a clean reset.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cornolle attacking ground game with durability.
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Syguła is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Cornolle is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -9 toward Cornolle — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Cornolle 56 (C) vs Syguła 27 (D). Cornolle's return is the live one (0.22 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Syguła's entries. Punching agility: Syguła 72 (B) vs Cornolle 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Syguła (7.3 SLpM at 53%). Striking defense: Syguła 73 (B) vs Cornolle 62 (C+). Syguła absorbs 2.06/min at 54% defense; Cornolle is a softer target at 3.64 SApM.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (59%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cornolle attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
R1
17%
R2
11%
R3
12%
Dist
59%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.7 minutes.
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Striking differential
-1.17 vs 3.90 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Damage ratio
0.69 vs 3.03 landed/absorbed
Output (SLpM)
2.55 vs 5.83
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
Counter punching
56 vs 27
Fight IQ
C+ 63 vs C 55 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Striking defense
62% vs 55%
Striking efficiency
58% vs 49%
Pocket defense (tape)
C+ vs B
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Age-adjusted curve
36 vs 27
Reach / length
67.0" vs 69.0"
Ground game (tape)
20 vs 17
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Takedown reaction
84% vs 83% hips on the shot
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 54 vs 53
Takedown mismatch
TD def 83% vs 85%
Style interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Fighter 4397782
Submission · R2 2:44
Fighter 4292349
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4374742
Submission · R2 1:52
Fighter 4916251
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 5127984
KO/TKO · R2 3:06
Fighter 4397782
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4277049
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4711407
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5127984
KO/TKO · R2 1:20
Fighter 4426284
KO/TKO · R2 -
Fighter 5242283
KO/TKO · R1 1:48
Fighter 5242284
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
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