UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Farés Ziam 61% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

FranceFarés Ziam
“Smile Killer”
Unranked · 18-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 71
Kill Cliff FC · France
Farés Ziam
61.0%
Axel Sola
39.0%
Model win probability · confidence 70%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Farés Ziam is the model side at 61.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Ziam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.
Striking defense
ZiamZiam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.
Timing & reaction
ZiamZiam 64 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ziam.
Counter punching
ZiamZiam 57 (C) vs Sola 43 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Sola's entries.
Takedown reaction
SolaSola 66 (C+) vs Ziam 53 (C). When the shot comes, Sola stuffs it at 77% — Ziam is at 78%.
Path · Ziam
Ziam wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Sola a long look at durability.
Path · Sola
Sola wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Ziam a long look at durability.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Ziam is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Sola is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Sola — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Ziam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM. Timing & reaction: Ziam 64 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ziam. Counter punching: Ziam 57 (C) vs Sola 43 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Sola's entries.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.
R1
21%
R2
13%
R3
14%
Dist
53%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.
hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-1.04 vs -2.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Pocket defense (tape)
C+ vs D
Striking defense
63% vs 55%
Output (SLpM)
2.52 vs 3.96
Takedown reaction
78% vs 77% hips on the shot
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Fight IQ
B 71 vs B+ 78 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Counter punching
57 vs 43
Striking efficiency
60% vs 54%
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Ground game (tape)
47 vs 43
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Damage ratio
0.71 vs 0.62 landed/absorbed
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Reach / length
75.0" vs 74.0"
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 61 vs 57
Style interaction
hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Age-adjusted curve
29 vs 28
Takedown mismatch
TD def 79% vs 79%
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Fighter 5144007
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5074130
KO/TKO · R2 4:59
Fighter 4339145
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4081024
KO/TKO · R3 2:59
Fighter 4070701
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4078246
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 3093513
Submission · R1 4:44
Mason Jones
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4078243
KO/TKO · R3 2:02
Fighter 5135143
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 3734006
KO/TKO · R2 3:43
Fighter 5245444
KO/TKO · R2 4:59
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