UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Farés Ziam 61% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Farés Ziam vs Axel Sola

Farés Ziam
FranceFrance

Farés Ziam

Smile Killer

Unranked · 18-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 71

Kill Cliff FC · France

VS
Axel Sola
FranceFrance

Axel Sola

Unranked · 12-1-1 · striker · Southpaw · 28 · IQ B+ 78

Boxing Squad · France

Farés Ziam

61.0%

Axel Sola

39.0%

Model win probability · confidence 70%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Ziam 61 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Farés Ziam is the model side at 61.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Ziam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.

  1. 01

    Striking defense

    Ziam

    Ziam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Ziam

    Ziam 64 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ziam.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Ziam

    Ziam 57 (C) vs Sola 43 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Sola's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Sola

    Sola 66 (C+) vs Ziam 53 (C). When the shot comes, Sola stuffs it at 77% — Ziam is at 78%.

Path · Ziam

Ziam wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Sola a long look at durability.

Path · Sola

Sola wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Ziam a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Ziam is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Sola is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Sola — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Ziam 62 (C+) vs Sola 40 (D). Ziam absorbs 3.66/min at 63% defense; Sola is a softer target at 7.33 SApM. Timing & reaction: Ziam 64 (C+) vs Sola 43 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ziam. Counter punching: Ziam 57 (C) vs Sola 43 (D). Ziam's return is the live one (0.24 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Sola's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (53%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

ZiamTraitSola
71 B
IQ
78 B+
47 D
Ground
43 D
62 C+
Defense
40 D
57 C
Counter
43 D
64 C+
Reaction
43 D
55 C
Agility
47 D
53 C
TD react
66 C+
87 A
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
27%
Submission
20%
Decision
53%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

53%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -1.04 vs -2.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Ziam
  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs D

    Ziam
  • Striking defense

    63% vs 55%

    Ziam
  • Output (SLpM)

    2.52 vs 3.96

    Sola
  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 77% hips on the shot

    Sola
  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ziam
  • Fight IQ

    B 71 vs B+ 78 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sola
  • Counter punching

    57 vs 43

    Ziam
  • Striking efficiency

    60% vs 54%

    Ziam
  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Sola
  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Ziam
  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Ziam
  • Ground game (tape)

    47 vs 43

    Ziam
  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Ziam
  • Damage ratio

    0.71 vs 0.62 landed/absorbed

    Ziam
  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Ziam
  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 74.0"

    Ziam
  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 61 vs 57

    Ziam
  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Ziam
  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sola
  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 28

    Ziam
  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 79% vs 79%

    Ziam
  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ziam

Tape

ZiamMetricSola
2.68SLpM4.50
3.66SApM7.33
64%Str Acc56%
63%Str Def53%
1.86TD Avg1.89
43%TD Acc36%
78%TD Def77%
0.52Sub Avg0.47
0.24KD/150.00
6'3"Reach6'2"
29Age28

Farés Ziam

L

Fighter 5144007

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 7, 2026
W

Fighter 5074130

KO/TKO · R2 4:59

Dec 7, 2025
W

Fighter 4339145

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 1, 2025
W

Fighter 4081024

KO/TKO · R3 2:59

Sep 28, 2024
W

Fighter 4070701

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Feb 25, 2024
W

Fighter 4078246

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 22, 2023

Axel Sola

W

Fighter 3093513

Submission · R1 4:44

Jul 25, 2026
L

Mason Jones

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 4078243

KO/TKO · R3 2:02

Sep 6, 2025
W

Fighter 5135143

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jun 14, 2025
W

Fighter 3734006

KO/TKO · R2 3:43

Jan 18, 2025
W

Fighter 5245444

KO/TKO · R2 4:59

Sep 26, 2024

Your pick

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