Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki

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Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. McMillen is built as: Volume pressure striker. Rahiki is built as: Power striker. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward McMillen — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Rahiki 55 (C) vs McMillen 37 (D). Rahiki's return is the live one (0.93 KD/15, 6 KOs) against McMillen's entries. Timing & reaction: Rahiki 72 (B) vs McMillen 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Rahiki. Striking defense: Rahiki 73 (B) vs McMillen 66 (C+). Rahiki absorbs 1.89/min at 53% defense; McMillen is a softer target at 1.40 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (42% KO/TKO vs 25% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Rahiki attacking ground game with punching agility. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.