OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. Malott · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Jamey-Lyn Horth 79% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jamey-Lyn Horth vs Katlyn Cerminara

Jamey-Lyn Horth
CanadaCanada

Jamey-Lyn Horth

Unranked · 9-3 · striker · Orthodox · 36 · IQ C+ 68

The Sound Martial Arts · Canada

VS
Katlyn Cerminara
USAUSA

Katlyn Cerminara

“Blonde Fighter”

#3 · 18-6 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 51

Renzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu · USA

Jamey-Lyn Horth

78.6%

Katlyn Cerminara

21.4%

Model win probability · confidence 76%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Horth 79 — the tape favors pocket striker

Jamey-Lyn Horth is the model side at 78.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Horth 67 (C+) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Horth stuffs it at 81% — Cerminara is at 50%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Horth

    Horth 67 (C+) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Horth stuffs it at 81% — Cerminara is at 50%.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Horth

    Horth 59 (C) vs Cerminara 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Horth.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Horth

    Horth 51 (C) vs Cerminara 32 (D). Hand speed / output lean Horth (3.8 SLpM at 55%).

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Horth

    Horth 68 (C+) vs Cerminara 51 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Horth (C+ vs C).

Path · Horth

Horth has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Cerminara defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Cerminara

Cerminara has to stuff the first takedown (33 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cerminara attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Horth is built as: Pocket striker. Cerminara is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Horth — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Horth 67 (C+) vs Cerminara 33 (D). When the shot comes, Horth stuffs it at 81% — Cerminara is at 50%. Timing & reaction: Horth 59 (C) vs Cerminara 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Horth. Punching agility: Horth 51 (C) vs Cerminara 32 (D). Hand speed / output lean Horth (3.8 SLpM at 55%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (51%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Cerminara attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HorthTraitCerminara
68 C+
IQ
51 C
33 D
Ground
20 D
65 C+
Defense
53 C
48 D
Counter
33 D
59 C
Reaction
36 D
51 C
Agility
32 D
67 C+
TD react
33 D
85 A
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
28%
Submission
21%
Decision
51%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

14%

R3

16%

Dist

51%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    0.53 vs -1.62 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Horth

  • Takedown reaction

    81% vs 50% hips on the shot

    Horth

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/1 UFC rows

    Horth

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C 51 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Horth

  • Striking efficiency

    55% vs 36%

    Horth

  • Damage ratio

    1.16 vs 0.75 landed/absorbed

    Horth

  • Ground game (tape)

    33 vs 20

    Horth

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Horth

  • Counter punching

    48 vs 33

    Horth

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Horth

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Horth

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Horth

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.80 vs 4.78

    Cerminara

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 66

    Cerminara

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 63%

    Cerminara

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Horth

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 68.0"

    Cerminara

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 81% vs 48%

    Horth

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Cerminara

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Horth

  • Age-adjusted curve

    36 vs 37

    Horth

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Horth

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Horth

Tape

HorthMetricCerminara
3.80SLpM4.58
3.27SApM6.53
55%Str Acc41%
60%Str Def65%
0.98TD Avg0.31
43%TD Acc16%
81%TD Def50%
0.16Sub Avg0.31
0.23KD/150.00
5'6"Reach5'8"
36Age37

Jamey-Lyn Horth

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Katlyn Cerminara

L

Manon Fiorot

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 22, 2022

Your pick

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