OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Court McGee 77% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Court McGee vs Eric Nolan

Court McGee
USAUSA

Court McGee

“The Crusher”

Unranked · 23-14 · striker · Orthodox · 41 · IQ C 57

The Pit Elevated Fight Team · USA

VS
Eric Nolan
USAUSA

Eric Nolan

“Nightime”

Unranked · 8-5 · hybrid · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 51

Lionheart MMA · USA

Court McGee

77.3%

Eric Nolan

22.7%

Model win probability · confidence 73%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

McGee 77 — the tape favors pocket striker

Court McGee is the model side at 77.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: McGee (ground 43) into Nolan (TD reaction 57). Ground game is the clearest separator: McGee 43 (D) vs Nolan 16 (D). McGee brings 1.8 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Nolan's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    McGee

    McGee 43 (D) vs Nolan 16 (D). McGee brings 1.8 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Nolan's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    McGee

    McGee 44 (D) vs Nolan 31 (D). Hand speed / output lean McGee (4.5 SLpM at 44%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    McGee

    McGee 66 (C+) vs Nolan 57 (C). When the shot comes, McGee stuffs it at 78% — Nolan is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Nolan

    Nolan 65 (C+) vs McGee 56 (C). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Nolan.

Path · McGee

McGee has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Nolan defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Nolan

Nolan has to stuff the first takedown (57 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 67 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nolan attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. McGee is built as: Pocket striker. Nolan is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +6 toward McGee — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: McGee 43 (D) vs Nolan 16 (D). McGee brings 1.8 TD/15 and 9 sub wins into Nolan's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: McGee 44 (D) vs Nolan 31 (D). Hand speed / output lean McGee (4.5 SLpM at 44%). Takedown reaction: McGee 66 (C+) vs Nolan 57 (C). When the shot comes, McGee stuffs it at 78% — Nolan is at 85%.

The finish path leans the mat (37% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nolan attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

McGeeTraitNolan
57 C
IQ
51 C
43 D
Ground
16 D
67 C+
Defense
61 C+
34 D
Counter
31 D
56 C
Reaction
65 C+
44 D
Agility
31 D
66 C+
TD react
57 C
81 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
23%
Submission
37%
Decision
40%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

17%

R3

19%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: McGee (ground 43) into Nolan (TD reaction 57).

  • Striking differential

    1.48 vs -2.33 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    McGee

  • Damage ratio

    1.49 vs 0.42 landed/absorbed

    McGee

  • Ground game (tape)

    43 vs 16

    McGee

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.50 vs 1.68

    McGee

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    McGee

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs C 51 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    McGee

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 65%

    Nolan

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 85% hips on the shot

    McGee

  • Age-adjusted curve

    41 vs 28

    Nolan

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    McGee

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Nolan

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: McGee (ground 43) into Nolan (TD reaction 57).

    McGee

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    McGee

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Nolan

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 31

    McGee

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    McGee

  • Reach / length

    75.0" vs 74.0"

    McGee

  • Striking efficiency

    44% vs 42%

    McGee

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 85%

    Nolan

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    McGee

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    McGee

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    McGee

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    McGee

Tape

McGeeMetricNolan
4.50SLpM1.68
3.02SApM4.01
44%Str Acc42%
59%Str Def65%
1.78TD Avg0.00
25%TD Acc0%
78%TD Def85%
0.45Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'3"Reach6'2"
41Age28

Court McGee

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Eric Nolan

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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