OctagonEdge

UFC 332 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ateba Gautier 54% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result

Ateba Gautier vs Roman Kopylov

Ateba Gautier
CameroonCameroon

Ateba Gautier

“The Storm”

Unranked · 11-1 · striker · Switch · 24 · IQ C+ 63

Manchester Top Team · Cameroon

VS
Roman Kopylov
RussiaRussia

Roman Kopylov

Unranked · 15-5 · striker · Southpaw · 34 · IQ C 54

Raty Team · Russia

Ateba Gautier

54.1%

Roman Kopylov

45.9%

Model win probability · confidence 47%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gautier 54 — the tape favors pocket striker

Ateba Gautier is the model side at 54.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Gautier 68 (B) vs Kopylov 55 (C). When the shot comes, Gautier stuffs it at 83% — Kopylov is at 81%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Gautier

    Gautier 68 (B) vs Kopylov 55 (C). When the shot comes, Gautier stuffs it at 83% — Kopylov is at 81%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Gautier

    Gautier 63 (C+) vs Kopylov 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gautier (C+ vs C).

  3. 03

    Timing & reaction

    Gautier

    Gautier 72 (B) vs Kopylov 67 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gautier.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Gautier

    Gautier 55 (C) vs Kopylov 50 (C). Gautier's return is the live one (1.17 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Kopylov's entries.

Path · Gautier

Gautier wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Kopylov a long look at durability.

Path · Kopylov

Kopylov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Gautier a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Gautier is built as: Pocket striker. Kopylov is built as: Pocket striker — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +9 toward Gautier — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Gautier 68 (B) vs Kopylov 55 (C). When the shot comes, Gautier stuffs it at 83% — Kopylov is at 81%. Fight IQ: Gautier 63 (C+) vs Kopylov 54 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gautier (C+ vs C). Timing & reaction: Gautier 72 (B) vs Kopylov 67 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gautier.

The finish path leans strikes (60% KO/TKO vs 13% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GautierTraitKopylov
63 C+
IQ
54 C
28 D
Ground
30 D
66 C+
Defense
67 C+
55 C
Counter
50 C
72 B
Reaction
67 C+
62 C+
Agility
62 C+
68 B
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
60%
Submission
13%
Decision
27%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

38%

R2

19%

R3

16%

Dist

27%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 63 vs C 54 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gautier

  • Takedown reaction

    83% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Gautier

  • Reach / length

    81.0" vs 75.0"

    Gautier

  • Striking differential

    1.23 vs 1.53 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Kopylov

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Gautier

  • Age-adjusted curve

    24 vs 34

    Gautier

  • Damage ratio

    1.40 vs 1.51 landed/absorbed

    Kopylov

  • Counter punching

    55 vs 50

    Gautier

  • Striking efficiency

    49% vs 52%

    Kopylov

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gautier

  • Ground game (tape)

    28 vs 30

    Kopylov

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Kopylov

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.32 vs 4.54

    Kopylov

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Gautier

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 59%

    Gautier

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Kopylov

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 81%

    Gautier

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Kopylov

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Kopylov

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Gautier

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gautier

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Gautier

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gautier

Tape

GautierMetricKopylov
4.32SLpM4.54
3.09SApM3.01
49%Str Acc52%
59%Str Def59%
0.41TD Avg1.12
100%TD Acc50%
83%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
1.17KD/150.70
6'9"Reach6'3"
24Age34

Ateba Gautier

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Roman Kopylov

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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