UFC 332 · Bantamweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Payton Talbott 91% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton Talbott
BrazilDeiveson Figueiredo
“Deus da Guerra”
Champion · 25-7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 38 · IQ B 69
Team Figueiredo · Brazil
USAPayton Talbott
Unranked · 11-1 · striker · Switch · 27 · IQ C+ 66
Reno Academy of Combat · USA
Deiveson Figueiredo
9.0%
Payton Talbott
91.0%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Talbott 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Payton Talbott is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Figueiredo (ground 53) into Talbott (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Talbott 68 (C+) vs Figueiredo 28 (D). When the shot comes, Talbott stuffs it at 82% — Figueiredo is at 54%.
- 01
Takedown reaction
TalbottTalbott 68 (C+) vs Figueiredo 28 (D). When the shot comes, Talbott stuffs it at 82% — Figueiredo is at 54%.
- 02
Punching agility
TalbottTalbott 81 (B+) vs Figueiredo 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Talbott (6.6 SLpM at 61%).
- 03
Timing & reaction
TalbottTalbott 68 (C+) vs Figueiredo 30 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Talbott.
- 04
Striking defense
TalbottTalbott 73 (B) vs Figueiredo 43 (D). Talbott absorbs 2.28/min at 55% defense; Figueiredo is a softer target at 3.80 SApM.
Path · Figueiredo
Figueiredo has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Talbott defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Talbott
Talbott has to stuff the first takedown (68 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 43 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Figueiredo attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Talbott is built as: Volume pressure striker. Figueiredo is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Figueiredo — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Talbott 68 (C+) vs Figueiredo 28 (D). When the shot comes, Talbott stuffs it at 82% — Figueiredo is at 54%. Punching agility: Talbott 81 (B+) vs Figueiredo 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Talbott (6.6 SLpM at 61%). Timing & reaction: Talbott 68 (C+) vs Figueiredo 30 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Talbott.
The finish path leans strikes (33% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Figueiredo attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
27%
R2
15%
R3
14%
Dist
44%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.1 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Figueiredo (ground 53) into Talbott (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-2.34 vs 4.34 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
TalbottDamage ratio
0.40 vs 2.90 landed/absorbed
TalbottOutput (SLpM)
1.58 vs 6.62
TalbottTakedown reaction
54% vs 82% hips on the shot
TalbottRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/0 UFC rows
TalbottGround game (tape)
53 vs 30
FigueiredoPocket defense (tape)
D vs B
TalbottPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
TalbottTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
TalbottStriking defense
44% vs 55%
TalbottStriking efficiency
50% vs 61%
TalbottGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
FigueiredoAge-adjusted curve
38 vs 27
TalbottReach / length
68.0" vs 70.5"
TalbottStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 66 vs 50
FigueiredoFight IQ
B 69 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
FigueiredoDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
TalbottStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Figueiredo (ground 53) into Talbott (TD reaction 68). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
FigueiredoTakedown mismatch
TD def 52% vs 82%
TalbottCounter punching
44 vs 43
FigueiredoCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
FigueiredoLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
FigueiredoChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Figueiredo
Tape
Deiveson Figueiredo
Song Yadong
Submission · R2 4:42
Umar Nurmagomedov
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4339130
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Cory Sandhagen
KO/TKO · R2 4:08
Petr Yan
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Marlon Vera
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Payton Talbott
No recent UFC tape in the book.
Your pick
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