Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Middleweight · 3 rounds
ArgentinaCarlos Petruzzella
“El Tito”
Unranked · 15-1 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ B 69
Thai Brasil · Argentina
Carlos Petruzzella
46.1%
Nick Galanti
53.9%
Model win probability · confidence 62%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Nick Galanti is the model side at 53.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Durability is the clearest separator: Galanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0.
Durability
GalantiGalanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0.
Striking defense
GalantiGalanti 57 (C) vs Petruzzella 55 (C). Galanti absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Petruzzella is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.
Fight IQ
GalantiGalanti 70 (B) vs Petruzzella 69 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Galanti (B vs B).
Ground game
PetruzzellaPetruzzella 21 (D) vs Galanti 21 (D). Petruzzella brings 0.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Galanti's 85% takedown defense.
Path · Petruzzella
Petruzzella wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Galanti a long look at durability.
Path · Galanti
Galanti wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Petruzzella a long look at their first weapon.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Galanti is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Petruzzella is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Galanti — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Durability: Galanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0. Striking defense: Galanti 57 (C) vs Petruzzella 55 (C). Galanti absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Petruzzella is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Fight IQ: Galanti 70 (B) vs Petruzzella 69 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Galanti (B vs B).
The finish path leans the mat (28% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.
R1
21%
R2
15%
R3
17%
Dist
47%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.
hybrid meets hybrid.
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
Reach / length
72.0" vs 74.0"
Striking differential
-3.85 vs -3.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Fight IQ
B 69 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Pocket defense (tape)
C vs C
Striking defense
69% vs 70%
Age-adjusted curve
29 vs 28
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 48 vs 49
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Damage ratio
0.13 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed
Output (SLpM)
0.60 vs 0.60
Striking efficiency
22% vs 22%
Takedown mismatch
TD def 87% vs 87%
Style interaction
hybrid meets hybrid.
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Ground game (tape)
21 vs 21
Takedown reaction
85% vs 85% hips on the shot
Counter punching
37 vs 37
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Fighter 5310776
KO/TKO · R1 3:06
Fighter 5346396
TKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R1 0:45
Fighter 5346395
KO/TKO · R1 4:24
Fighter 5265292
TKO (Ground and Pound) · R1 0:50
Fighter 5265293
Submission (Forearm Choke) · R1 3:54
Fighter 4001920
Submission (Inverted Kimura) · R1 0:31
Fighter 5365551
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 5365550
Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:11
Fighter 4697154
KO/TKO · R3 4:03
Fighter 3016619
Submission (Guillotine) · R1 1:59
Fighter 5125276
Submission (Guillotine) · R2 4:47
Brandon Holmes
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
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