Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Carlos Petruzzella vs Nick Galanti

CP
ArgentinaArgentina

Carlos Petruzzella

El Tito

Unranked · 15-1 · hybrid · -- · 29 · IQ B 69

Thai Brasil · Argentina

VS
NG
USAUSA

Nick Galanti

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · -- · 28 · IQ B 70

Dante Rivera BJJ · USA

Carlos Petruzzella

46.1%

Nick Galanti

53.9%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Galanti 54 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Nick Galanti is the model side at 53.9% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Durability is the clearest separator: Galanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Galanti

    Galanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0.

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Galanti

    Galanti 57 (C) vs Petruzzella 55 (C). Galanti absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Petruzzella is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Galanti

    Galanti 70 (B) vs Petruzzella 69 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Galanti (B vs B).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Petruzzella

    Petruzzella 21 (D) vs Galanti 21 (D). Petruzzella brings 0.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Galanti's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Petruzzella

Petruzzella wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Galanti a long look at durability.

Path · Galanti

Galanti wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Petruzzella a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Galanti is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Petruzzella is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +1 toward Galanti — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Galanti 78 (B+) vs Petruzzella 66 (C+). Galanti has been finished by strikes 0 times; Petruzzella 0. Striking defense: Galanti 57 (C) vs Petruzzella 55 (C). Galanti absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Petruzzella is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Fight IQ: Galanti 70 (B) vs Petruzzella 69 (B). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Galanti (B vs B).

The finish path leans the mat (28% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PetruzzellaTraitGalanti
69 B
IQ
70 B
21 D
Ground
21 D
55 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
39 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
66 C+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
28%
Decision
47%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

21%

R2

15%

R3

17%

Dist

47%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Galanti
  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Galanti
  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Galanti
  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 74.0"

    Galanti
  • Striking differential

    -3.85 vs -3.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Galanti
  • Fight IQ

    B 69 vs B 70 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Galanti
  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Galanti
  • Striking defense

    69% vs 70%

    Galanti
  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 28

    Galanti
  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 49

    Galanti
  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Galanti
  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Galanti
  • Damage ratio

    0.13 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Galanti
  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Petruzzella
  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Petruzzella
  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 87%

    Petruzzella
  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Petruzzella
  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Petruzzella
  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 21

    Petruzzella
  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Petruzzella
  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Petruzzella
  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Petruzzella
  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Petruzzella

Tape

PetruzzellaMetricGalanti
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
Reach
29Age28

Carlos Petruzzella

W

Fighter 5310776

KO/TKO · R1 3:06

Dec 30, 2025
W

Fighter 5346396

TKO (Doctor Stoppage) · R1 0:45

Sep 19, 2025
L

Fighter 5346395

KO/TKO · R1 4:24

May 24, 2025
W

Fighter 5265292

TKO (Ground and Pound) · R1 0:50

Oct 27, 2024
W

Fighter 5265293

Submission (Forearm Choke) · R1 3:54

Dec 22, 2023
W

Fighter 4001920

Submission (Inverted Kimura) · R1 0:31

Oct 7, 2023

Nick Galanti

W

Fighter 5365551

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Mar 27, 2026
W

Fighter 5365550

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:11

Dec 20, 2025
W

Fighter 4697154

KO/TKO · R3 4:03

Aug 30, 2025
W

Fighter 3016619

Submission (Guillotine) · R1 1:59

May 24, 2025
W

Fighter 5125276

Submission (Guillotine) · R2 4:47

Feb 1, 2025
L

Brandon Holmes

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 16, 2024

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.