OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Ronald Humphrey vs Alexis Miranda

RH
USAUSA

Ronald Humphrey

Unranked · 4-0 · hybrid · -- · 25 · IQ C+ 68

American Top Team Atlanta · USA

VS
AM
MexicoMexico

Alexis Miranda

“Mantis”

Unranked · 9-2 · hybrid · -- · 27 · IQ C+ 66

Entram Gym · Mexico

Ronald Humphrey

51.3%

Alexis Miranda

48.7%

Model win probability · confidence 56%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Humphrey 51 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Ronald Humphrey is the model side at 51.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Durability is the clearest separator: Miranda 87 (A) vs Humphrey 78 (B+). Miranda has been finished by strikes 0 times; Humphrey 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Miranda

    Miranda 87 (A) vs Humphrey 78 (B+). Miranda has been finished by strikes 0 times; Humphrey 0.

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Miranda

    Miranda 14 (D) vs Humphrey 12 (D). Miranda brings 0.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Humphrey's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Humphrey

    Humphrey 68 (C+) vs Miranda 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Humphrey (C+ vs C+).

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Humphrey

    Humphrey 69 (B) vs Miranda 69 (B). When the shot comes, Humphrey stuffs it at 85% — Miranda is at 85%.

Path · Humphrey

Humphrey wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Miranda a long look at durability.

Path · Miranda

Miranda wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Humphrey a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Humphrey is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Miranda is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Humphrey — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Miranda 87 (A) vs Humphrey 78 (B+). Miranda has been finished by strikes 0 times; Humphrey 0. Ground game: Miranda 14 (D) vs Humphrey 12 (D). Miranda brings 0.0 TD/15 and 1 sub wins into Humphrey's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Humphrey 68 (C+) vs Miranda 66 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Humphrey (C+ vs C+).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (71%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

HumphreyTraitMiranda
68 C+
IQ
66 C+
12 D
Ground
14 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
39 D
Agility
39 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
78 B+
Chin
87 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
9%
Decision
71%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

12%

R2

8%

R3

10%

Dist

71%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/6 UFC rows

    Humphrey

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Miranda

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Miranda

  • Striking differential

    -3.76 vs -3.85 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Humphrey

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C+ 66 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Humphrey

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 14

    Miranda

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 69%

    Humphrey

  • Reach / length

    77.0" vs 76.5"

    Humphrey

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Humphrey

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.13 landed/absorbed

    Humphrey

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Humphrey

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Humphrey

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Humphrey

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 87%

    Humphrey

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 27

    Humphrey

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Humphrey

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Humphrey

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Humphrey

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Humphrey

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Humphrey

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Humphrey

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Humphrey

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Humphrey

Tape

HumphreyMetricMiranda
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'5"Reach6'5"
25Age27

Ronald Humphrey

W

Fighter 5362064

KO/TKO · R1 1:52

Mar 13, 2026
W

Fighter 5125497

KO/TKO · R1 3:11

Oct 10, 2025
W

Fighter 5292100

KO/TKO · R2 2:28

Feb 15, 2025
W

Fighter 5296768

KO/TKO · R1 1:31

Oct 19, 2024

Alexis Miranda

W

Fighter 4881805

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 22, 2026
W

Fighter 5367413

KO/TKO · R1 1:49

Jul 27, 2025
L

Fighter 5367412

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 16, 2025
W

Fighter 5218666

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Feb 23, 2025
W

Fighter 5367411

Submission (Triangle Choke) · R2 2:50

Nov 17, 2024
W

Fighter 5367410

KO/TKO · R2 4:47

Apr 7, 2024

Your pick

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