OctagonEdge

Dana White's Contender Series: Season 10, Week 3 · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Gary Balletto vs Sean Clancy Jr.

GB
USAUSA

Gary Balletto

“Batman”

Unranked · 11-3 · hybrid · -- · 31 · IQ C+ 61

Tri-Force MMA · USA

VS
SC
ScotlandScotland

Sean Clancy Jr.

“The One”

Unranked · 8-0 · hybrid · -- · 23 · IQ B 71

Higher Level Martial Arts · Scotland

Gary Balletto

44.6%

Sean Clancy Jr.

55.4%

Model win probability · confidence 63%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Clancy Jr. 55 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Sean Clancy Jr. is the model side at 55.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Durability is the clearest separator: Clancy Jr. 75 (B) vs Balletto 63 (C+). Clancy Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Balletto 0.

  1. 01

    Durability

    Jr.

    Clancy Jr. 75 (B) vs Balletto 63 (C+). Clancy Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Balletto 0.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Jr.

    Clancy Jr. 71 (B) vs Balletto 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Clancy Jr. (B vs C+).

  3. 03

    Ground game

    Balletto

    Balletto 21 (D) vs Clancy Jr. 19 (D). Balletto brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Clancy Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Jr.

    Clancy Jr. 57 (C) vs Balletto 55 (C). Clancy Jr. absorbs 4.60/min at 68% defense; Balletto is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Balletto

Balletto wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Clancy Jr. a long look at durability.

Path · Jr.

Clancy Jr. wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Balletto a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Clancy Jr. is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Balletto is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Clancy Jr. — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Durability: Clancy Jr. 75 (B) vs Balletto 63 (C+). Clancy Jr. has been finished by strikes 0 times; Balletto 0. Fight IQ: Clancy Jr. 71 (B) vs Balletto 61 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Clancy Jr. (B vs C+). Ground game: Balletto 21 (D) vs Clancy Jr. 19 (D). Balletto brings 0.0 TD/15 and 7 sub wins into Clancy Jr.'s 85% takedown defense.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (56%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BallettoTraitJr.
61 C+
IQ
71 B
21 D
Ground
19 D
55 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
58 C
39 D
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
63 C+
Chin
75 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
22%
Submission
22%
Decision
56%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

56%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.5 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jr.

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 75.0"

    Jr.

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jr.

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Jr.

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 19

    Balletto

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 23

    Jr.

  • Striking differential

    -3.81 vs -3.76 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jr.

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Jr.

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jr.

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Balletto

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Balletto

  • Striking defense

    70% vs 70%

    Jr.

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 49 vs 48

    Balletto

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jr.

  • Damage ratio

    0.14 vs 0.14 landed/absorbed

    Jr.

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.60 vs 0.60

    Balletto

  • Striking efficiency

    22% vs 22%

    Balletto

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 88%

    Balletto

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Balletto

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Balletto

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Balletto

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Balletto

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Balletto

Tape

BallettoMetricJr.
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'10"Reach—
31Age23

Gary Balletto

W

Fighter 5153238

KO/TKO · R2 4:43

Apr 5, 2025
W

Fighter 5124148

KO/TKO · R2 2:36

Nov 9, 2024
W

Fighter 4388599

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 3:08

Feb 23, 2024
W

Fighter 5148646

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 0:37

Jul 29, 2023
L

Fighter 4706975

KO/TKO · R1 4:34

Mar 5, 2022
W

Fighter 5153082

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:56

Sep 18, 2021

Sean Clancy Jr.

W

Fighter 3094524

KO/TKO · R2 0:29

Dec 6, 2025
W

Fighter 5044375

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 0:58

Apr 19, 2025
W

Fighter 5089414

KO/TKO · R1 1:23

Nov 23, 2024
W

Fighter 4893010

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 1:08

Sep 7, 2024
W

Fighter 4896311

TKO (Ground and Pound) · R2 4:04

Apr 20, 2024
W

Fighter 5287883

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 3:08

Oct 14, 2023

Your pick

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