OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Carol Foro 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Carol Foro / Decision - Unanimous)

Gigi Canuto vs Carol Foro

Gigi Canuto
BrazilBrazil

Gigi Canuto

“Diamond”

Unranked · 7-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 23 · IQ C+ 61

10th Planet Jiu Jitsu · Brazil

VS
Carol Foro
BrazilBrazil

Carol Foro

“Anabelle”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 63

RPlay Thai · Brazil

Gigi Canuto

9.0%

Carol Foro

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Foro 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Carol Foro is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Foro 75 (B) vs Canuto 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Foro (7.8 SLpM at 56%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Foro

    Foro 75 (B) vs Canuto 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Foro (7.8 SLpM at 56%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Foro

    Foro 73 (B) vs Canuto 57 (C). Foro absorbs 1.87/min at 52% defense; Canuto is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Foro

    Foro 84 (A) vs Canuto 72 (B). Foro has been finished by strikes 0 times; Canuto 0.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Canuto

    Canuto 37 (D) vs Foro 29 (D). Canuto's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Foro's entries.

Path · Canuto

Canuto wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Foro a long look at durability.

Path · Foro

Volume. Foro wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Canuto a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Canuto attacking ground game with their best weapon.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Foro is built as: Volume pressure striker. Canuto is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +2 toward Foro — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Foro 75 (B) vs Canuto 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Foro (7.8 SLpM at 56%). Striking defense: Foro 73 (B) vs Canuto 57 (C). Foro absorbs 1.87/min at 52% defense; Canuto is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Durability: Foro 84 (A) vs Canuto 72 (B). Foro has been finished by strikes 0 times; Canuto 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (71%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Canuto attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

CanutoTraitForo
61 C+
IQ
63 C+
21 D
Ground
14 D
57 C
Defense
73 B
37 D
Counter
29 D
58 C
Reaction
65 C+
38 D
Agility
75 B
69 B
TD react
69 B
72 B
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
15%
Submission
13%
Decision
71%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

11%

R2

8%

R3

9%

Dist

71%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 12.7 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 5.93 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Foro

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 4.17 landed/absorbed

    Foro

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 7.80

    Foro

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 56%

    Foro

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 52%

    Canuto

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Foro

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Foro

  • Ground game (tape)

    21 vs 14

    Canuto

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Foro

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 29

    Canuto

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Foro

  • Reach / length

    64.0" vs 61.5"

    Canuto

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Foro

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 61 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Foro

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Foro

  • Age-adjusted curve

    23 vs 29

    Canuto

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Canuto

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Canuto

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Canuto

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Canuto

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Canuto

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Canuto

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Canuto

Tape

CanutoMetricForo
0.00SLpM7.80
4.60SApM1.87
0%Str Acc56%
68%Str Def52%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'4"Reach5'2"
23Age29

Gigi Canuto

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Carol Foro

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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