OctagonEdge

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Michael Aswell 60% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Michael Aswell vs JooSang Yoo

Michael Aswell
USAUSA

Michael Aswell

“The Texas Kid”

Unranked · 11-5 · striker · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C 52

4oz Fight Club · USA

VS
JooSang Yoo
South KoreaSouth Korea

JooSang Yoo

“Zombie Jr.”

Unranked · 9-1 · striker · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B+ 81

Tiger Gym · South Korea

Michael Aswell

60.0%

JooSang Yoo

40.0%

Model win probability · confidence 68%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Aswell 60 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Michael Aswell is the model side at 60.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Fight IQ is the clearest separator: Yoo 81 (B+) vs Aswell 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yoo (B+ vs C).

  1. 01

    Fight IQ

    Yoo

    Yoo 81 (B+) vs Aswell 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yoo (B+ vs C).

  2. 02

    Counter punching

    Yoo

    Yoo 53 (C) vs Aswell 25 (D). Yoo's return is the live one (0.28 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Aswell's entries.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Yoo

    Yoo 80 (B+) vs Aswell 70 (B). Hand speed / output lean Yoo (6.4 SLpM at 69%).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Aswell

    Aswell 24 (D) vs Yoo 14 (D). Aswell brings 0.3 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Yoo's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Aswell

Aswell has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Yoo defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Yoo

Yoo wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Aswell a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Aswell is built as: Volume pressure striker. Yoo is built as: Volume pressure striker — high-IQ problem solver. Fight IQ delta is -30 toward Yoo — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Fight IQ: Yoo 81 (B+) vs Aswell 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Yoo (B+ vs C). Counter punching: Yoo 53 (C) vs Aswell 25 (D). Yoo's return is the live one (0.28 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Aswell's entries. Punching agility: Yoo 80 (B+) vs Aswell 70 (B). Hand speed / output lean Yoo (6.4 SLpM at 69%).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (62%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

AswellTraitYoo
52 C
IQ
81 B+
24 D
Ground
14 D
73 B
Defense
73 B
25 D
Counter
53 C
65 C+
Reaction
67 C+
70 B
Agility
80 B+
68 B
TD react
69 B
82 B+
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
9%
Decision
62%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

10%

R3

11%

Dist

62%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    5.88 vs 2.75 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Aswell

  • Damage ratio

    4.00 vs 2.20 landed/absorbed

    Aswell

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs B+ 81 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Yoo

  • Output (SLpM)

    7.84 vs 5.05

    Aswell

  • Counter punching

    25 vs 53

    Yoo

  • Striking efficiency

    43% vs 61%

    Yoo

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Yoo

  • Ground game (tape)

    24 vs 14

    Aswell

  • Striking defense

    52% vs 56%

    Yoo

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Yoo

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Aswell

  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 71.0"

    Yoo

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 32

    Aswell

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 57 vs 48

    Aswell

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Yoo

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Aswell

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Yoo

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Aswell

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Yoo

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 83% vs 86%

    Yoo

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Aswell

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Aswell

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Aswell

Tape

AswellMetricYoo
7.79SLpM6.36
1.87SApM2.37
47%Str Acc69%
52%Str Def55%
0.32TD Avg0.00
100%TD Acc0%
84%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.18KD/150.28
5'9"Reach5'11"
25Age32

Michael Aswell

L

Fighter 4393818

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 20, 2026
L

Fighter 5146696

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 4863328

KO/TKO · R1 1:42

Oct 11, 2025
L

Fighter 5145682

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 31, 2025
W

Fighter 5172335

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Dec 15, 2024
L

Fighter 5144006

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Aug 28, 2024

JooSang Yoo

L

Fighter 4881997

KO/TKO · R2 0:21

Oct 5, 2025
W

Fighter 5070502

KO/TKO · R1 0:28

Jun 7, 2025
W

Fighter 5078112

TKO (Punches) · R1 1:15

Dec 14, 2024
W

Fighter 4421059

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 29, 2024
W

Fighter 5282140

TKO (Punches) · R1 0:32

Aug 19, 2023
W

Fighter 3019078

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Dec 30, 2022

Your pick

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