OctagonEdge

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ryan Gandra 91% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy Diaz

Ryan Gandra
BrazilBrazil

Ryan Gandra

“Problema”

Unranked · 10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 68

Flavio Baiano Team · Brazil

VS
Ozzy Diaz
USAUSA

Ozzy Diaz

“One Hit”

Unranked · 10-4 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 65

Kings MMA · USA

Ryan Gandra

91.0%

Ozzy Diaz

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gandra 91 — the tape favors power striker

Ryan Gandra is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Gandra 80 (B+) vs Diaz 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Gandra (11.7 SLpM at 51%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Gandra

    Gandra 80 (B+) vs Diaz 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Gandra (11.7 SLpM at 51%).

  2. 02

    Durability

    Diaz

    Diaz 78 (B+) vs Gandra 67 (C+). Diaz has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gandra 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Gandra

    Gandra 45 (D) vs Diaz 34 (D). Gandra's return is the live one (0.76 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Diaz's entries.

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Gandra

    Gandra 66 (C+) vs Diaz 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Gandra.

Path · Gandra

Volume. Gandra wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Diaz a clean reset.

Path · Diaz

Diaz wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Gandra a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Diaz attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Gandra is built as: Power striker. Diaz is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +3 toward Gandra — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Gandra 80 (B+) vs Diaz 55 (C). Hand speed / output lean Gandra (11.7 SLpM at 51%). Durability: Diaz 78 (B+) vs Gandra 67 (C+). Diaz has been finished by strikes 0 times; Gandra 0. Counter punching: Gandra 45 (D) vs Diaz 34 (D). Gandra's return is the live one (0.76 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Diaz's entries.

The finish path leans strikes (48% KO/TKO vs 11% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Diaz attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GandraTraitDiaz
68 C+
IQ
65 C+
14 D
Ground
16 D
67 C+
Defense
66 C+
45 D
Counter
34 D
66 C+
Reaction
62 C+
80 B+
Agility
55 C
69 B
TD react
69 B
67 C+
Chin
78 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
48%
Submission
11%
Decision
41%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

15%

R3

14%

Dist

41%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 1.29 landed/absorbed

    Gandra

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs 0.81 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gandra

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 3.60

    Gandra

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Gandra

  • Striking defense

    47% vs 57%

    Diaz

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Gandra

  • Reach / length

    74.5" vs 79.0"

    Diaz

  • Counter punching

    45 vs 34

    Gandra

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Diaz

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gandra

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 35

    Gandra

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Gandra

  • Ground game (tape)

    14 vs 16

    Diaz

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gandra

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 49%

    Gandra

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Gandra

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gandra

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 56 vs 55

    Gandra

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gandra

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 84%

    Gandra

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Gandra

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Gandra

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Gandra

Tape

GandraMetricDiaz
11.71SLpM5.33
1.40SApM2.73
51%Str Acc50%
45%Str Def57%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.76KD/150.10
6'3"Reach6'7"
31Age35

Ryan Gandra

W

Fighter 5143223

KO/TKO · R1 1:15

Jul 11, 2026
W

Fighter 5157817

KO/TKO · R1 0:41

Feb 28, 2026
W

Fighter 5216997

KO/TKO · R1 2:51

Aug 27, 2025
W

Fighter 5291089

KO/TKO · R1 2:28

Nov 22, 2024
W

Fighter 5000990

KO/TKO · R2 2:38

Nov 4, 2023
W

Fighter 5291088

Submission (Arm Triangle) · R1 2:30

Sep 30, 2023

Ozzy Diaz

L

Fighter 5218421

KO/TKO · R2 1:10

May 9, 2026
W

Fighter 5211247

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 9, 2025
L

Fighter 4845284

KO/TKO · R1 2:25

Nov 23, 2024
W

Fighter 4249192

KO/TKO · R2 3:24

May 18, 2024
W

Fighter 4704451

KO/TKO · R1 4:59

Mar 9, 2024
L

Fighter 4684135

KO/TKO · R2 1:39

Jul 27, 2022

Your pick

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