UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Robelis Despaigne 80% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result
Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis Despaigne
AustraliaTai Tuivasa
“Bam Bam”
Unranked · 15-10 · striker · Southpaw · 33 · IQ D 50
Lions High Performance Centre · Australia
CubaRobelis Despaigne
“The Big Boy”
Unranked · 6-2 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C+ 67
MMA Temple · Cuba
Tai Tuivasa
20.4%
Robelis Despaigne
79.6%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Despaigne 80 — the tape favors pocket striker
Robelis Despaigne is the model side at 79.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Striking defense is the clearest separator: Despaigne 61 (C+) vs Tuivasa 26 (D). Despaigne absorbs 3.86/min at 64% defense; Tuivasa is a softer target at 7.36 SApM.
- 01
Striking defense
DespaigneDespaigne 61 (C+) vs Tuivasa 26 (D). Despaigne absorbs 3.86/min at 64% defense; Tuivasa is a softer target at 7.36 SApM.
- 02
Timing & reaction
DespaigneDespaigne 63 (C+) vs Tuivasa 41 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Despaigne.
- 03
Fight IQ
DespaigneDespaigne 67 (C+) vs Tuivasa 50 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Despaigne (C+ vs D).
- 04
Counter punching
DespaigneDespaigne 61 (C+) vs Tuivasa 48 (D). Despaigne's return is the live one (0.40 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Tuivasa's entries.
Path · Tuivasa
Tuivasa wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Despaigne a long look at durability.
Path · Despaigne
Despaigne wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Tuivasa a long look at their first weapon.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tuivasa attacking ground game with their best weapon.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Despaigne is built as: Pocket striker. Tuivasa is built as: Power striker — porous pocket, southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +18 toward Despaigne — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Despaigne 61 (C+) vs Tuivasa 26 (D). Despaigne absorbs 3.86/min at 64% defense; Tuivasa is a softer target at 7.36 SApM. Timing & reaction: Despaigne 63 (C+) vs Tuivasa 41 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Despaigne. Fight IQ: Despaigne 67 (C+) vs Tuivasa 50 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Despaigne (C+ vs D).
The finish path leans strikes (49% KO/TKO vs 9% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Tuivasa attacking ground game with their best weapon. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
15%
R3
13%
Dist
42%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
-3.87 vs -1.66 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
DespaigneRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
DespaigneStriking defense
42% vs 65%
DespaignePocket defense (tape)
D vs C+
DespaigneFight IQ
D 50 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
DespaigneReach / length
75.0" vs 84.0"
DespaigneTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
DespaigneStriking efficiency
51% vs 61%
DespaigneCounter punching
48 vs 61
DespaigneDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
DespaigneDamage ratio
0.40 vs 0.56 landed/absorbed
DespaignePunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
DespaigneOutput (SLpM)
2.53 vs 2.11
TuivasaAge-adjusted curve
33 vs 37
TuivasaTakedown reaction
100% vs 85% hips on the shot
DespaigneStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 58 vs 51
TuivasaCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
DespaigneGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
TuivasaStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
TuivasaTakedown mismatch
TD def 90% vs 86%
TuivasaLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
TuivasaChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
TuivasaGround game (tape)
12 vs 12
Tuivasa
Tape
Tai Tuivasa
Fighter 5080572
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5212856
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 3093559
Submission · R1 4:08
Alexander Volkov
Submission · R2 4:37
Fighter 4217395
KO/TKO · R1 0:54
Robelis Despaigne
Fighter 2335725
KO/TKO · R1 2:59
Fighter 2223033
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Waldo Cortes Acosta
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4276994
KO/TKO · R1 0:18
Fighter 5189564
KO/TKO · R1 0:04
Fighter 5189563
KO/TKO · R1 0:03
Your pick
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