OctagonEdge

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Charles Jourdain 68% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Marlon Vera vs Charles Jourdain

Marlon Vera
EcuadorEcuador

Marlon Vera

“Chito”

Unranked · 23-12-1 · striker · Switch · 33 · IQ C 58

Team Oyama · Ecuador

VS
Charles Jourdain
CanadaCanada

Charles Jourdain

“Air”

Unranked · 18-8-1 · striker · Switch · 30 · IQ C+ 65

Brazilian Top Team Canada · Canada

Marlon Vera

31.8%

Charles Jourdain

68.2%

Model win probability · confidence 78%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Jourdain 68 — the tape favors pocket striker

Charles Jourdain is the model side at 68.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Jourdain 67 (C+) vs Vera 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (5.4 SLpM at 55%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 67 (C+) vs Vera 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (5.4 SLpM at 55%).

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Vera

    Vera 62 (C+) vs Jourdain 47 (D). When the shot comes, Vera stuffs it at 77% — Jourdain is at 67%.

  3. 03

    Durability

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 74 (B) vs Vera 66 (C+). Jourdain has been finished by strikes 0 times; Vera 0.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Jourdain

    Jourdain 65 (C+) vs Vera 58 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Jourdain (C+ vs C).

Path · Vera

Vera wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Jourdain a long look at durability.

Path · Jourdain

Jourdain wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Vera a long look at their first weapon.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Jourdain is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Vera is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +7 toward Jourdain — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Jourdain 67 (C+) vs Vera 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jourdain (5.4 SLpM at 55%). Takedown reaction: Vera 62 (C+) vs Jourdain 47 (D). When the shot comes, Vera stuffs it at 77% — Jourdain is at 67%. Durability: Jourdain 74 (B) vs Vera 66 (C+). Jourdain has been finished by strikes 0 times; Vera 0.

The finish path leans strikes (36% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

VeraTraitJourdain
58 C
IQ
65 C+
38 D
Ground
32 D
44 D
Defense
47 D
47 D
Counter
52 C
45 D
Reaction
51 C
42 D
Agility
67 C+
62 C+
TD react
47 D
66 C+
Chin
74 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
36%
Submission
26%
Decision
38%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

16%

R3

14%

Dist

38%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    -1.33 vs 0.87 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jourdain

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Jourdain

  • Damage ratio

    0.75 vs 1.20 landed/absorbed

    Jourdain

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 67% hips on the shot

    Vera

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jourdain

  • Striking efficiency

    42% vs 53%

    Jourdain

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.93 vs 5.20

    Jourdain

  • Fight IQ

    C 58 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Jourdain

  • Ground game (tape)

    38 vs 32

    Vera

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 72 vs 53

    Vera

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jourdain

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 52

    Jourdain

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jourdain

  • Reach / length

    70.5" vs 69.0"

    Vera

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Vera

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Vera

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs D

    Jourdain

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 30

    Jourdain

  • Striking defense

    52% vs 52%

    Vera

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 68%

    Jourdain

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Vera

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Vera

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Vera

Tape

VeraMetricJourdain
4.18SLpM5.36
5.10SApM4.46
51%Str Acc55%
54%Str Def51%
0.47TD Avg0.38
39%TD Acc22%
77%TD Def67%
0.76Sub Avg0.61
0.00KD/150.86
5'11"Reach5'9"
33Age30

Marlon Vera

L

David Martinez

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 1, 2026
L

Fighter 4079149

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Oct 18, 2025
L

Deiveson Figueiredo

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 3, 2024
L

Fighter 4205093

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Mar 10, 2024
W

Pedro Munhoz

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 20, 2023
L

Cory Sandhagen

Decision - Split · R5 5:00

Mar 25, 2023

Charles Jourdain

W

Fighter 4237015

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 19, 2026
W

Fighter 3070984

Submission · R1 3:05

Oct 18, 2025
W

Fighter 3114234

Submission · R2 3:43

Nov 2, 2024
L

Jean Silva

KO/TKO · R2 1:22

Jun 30, 2024
L

Sean Woodson

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jan 21, 2024
W

Dooho Choi

KO/TKO · R2 4:32

Dec 21, 2019

Your pick

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