UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Iwo Baraniewski 91% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo Baraniewski
USAAlonzo Menifield
“Atomic”
Unranked · 18-6-1 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ B 72
Fortis MMA · USA
PolandIwo Baraniewski
“Rudy”
Unranked · 9-0 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 71
Aligatores Fight Club · Poland
Alonzo Menifield
9.0%
Iwo Baraniewski
91.0%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Baraniewski 91 — the tape favors power striker
Iwo Baraniewski is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Baraniewski 95 (A+) vs Menifield 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%).
- 01
Punching agility
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 95 (A+) vs Menifield 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%).
- 02
Timing & reaction
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 92 (A+) vs Menifield 65 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Baraniewski.
- 03
Striking defense
BaraniewskiBaraniewski 94 (A+) vs Menifield 75 (B). Baraniewski absorbs 0.00/min at 100% defense; Menifield is a softer target at 2.27 SApM.
- 04
Durability
MenifieldMenifield 71 (B) vs Baraniewski 57 (C). Menifield has been finished by strikes 0 times; Baraniewski 0.
Path · Menifield
Menifield has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Baraniewski defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Baraniewski
Volume. Baraniewski wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Menifield a clean reset.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Menifield attacking ground game with striking defense.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Baraniewski is built as: Power striker. Menifield is built as: Power striker. Fight IQ delta is -0 toward Menifield — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Baraniewski 95 (A+) vs Menifield 54 (C). Hand speed / output lean Baraniewski (15.8 SLpM at 72%). Timing & reaction: Baraniewski 92 (A+) vs Menifield 65 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Baraniewski. Striking defense: Baraniewski 94 (A+) vs Menifield 75 (B). Baraniewski absorbs 0.00/min at 100% defense; Menifield is a softer target at 2.27 SApM.
The finish path leans strikes (68% KO/TKO vs 14% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Menifield attacking ground game with striking defense. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
43%
R2
18%
R3
22%
Dist
18%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 7.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Damage ratio
1.70 vs 7.08 landed/absorbed
BaraniewskiStriking differential
1.56 vs 7.30 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
BaraniewskiOutput (SLpM)
3.80 vs 8.50
BaraniewskiStriking defense
65% vs 82%
BaraniewskiRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
BaraniewskiPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
BaraniewskiTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
BaraniewskiPocket defense (tape)
B vs A+
BaraniewskiStriking efficiency
50% vs 59%
BaraniewskiGround game (tape)
24 vs 16
MenifieldDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
MenifieldAge-adjusted curve
38 vs 27
BaraniewskiCounter punching
64 vs 72
BaraniewskiReach / length
76.0" vs 73.5"
MenifieldTakedown reaction
80% vs 85% hips on the shot
BaraniewskiCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
BaraniewskiGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
MenifieldStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 57 vs 52
MenifieldFight IQ
B 72 vs B 71 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
MenifieldTakedown mismatch
TD def 80% vs 88%
BaraniewskiStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
MenifieldLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
MenifieldChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Menifield
Tape
Alonzo Menifield
Fighter 4845284
KO/TKO · R1 4:15
Fighter 3110836
KO/TKO · R1 1:27
Oumar Sy
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5264398
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4227265
KO/TKO · R2 3:18
Fighter 4695736
KO/TKO · R1 0:12
Iwo Baraniewski
Junior Tafa
KO/TKO · R1 1:25
Fighter 2223033
KO/TKO · R1 0:28
Fighter 4684240
KO/TKO · R1 1:29
Fighter 5307811
KO/TKO · R1 0:20
Fighter 5308009
KO/TKO · R1 3:02
Fighter 4236989
KO/TKO · R1 3:01
Your pick
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