UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Lightweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Renato Moicano 66% · KO/TKO · Round 1 · waiting on the result
Renato Moicano vs Brian Ortega
BrazilRenato Moicano
Unranked · 21-7-1 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C 60
American Top Team · Brazil
USABrian Ortega
“T-City”
#4 · 16-5 · striker · Switch · 35 · IQ C+ 62
Huntington Beach Ultimate Training Center · USA
Renato Moicano
66.3%
Brian Ortega
33.7%
Model win probability · confidence 76%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Moicano 66 — the tape favors pocket striker
Renato Moicano is the model side at 66.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Moicano 61 (C+) vs Ortega 35 (D). Hand speed / output lean Moicano (4.1 SLpM at 57%).
- 01
Punching agility
MoicanoMoicano 61 (C+) vs Ortega 35 (D). Hand speed / output lean Moicano (4.1 SLpM at 57%).
- 02
Striking defense
MoicanoMoicano 56 (C) vs Ortega 34 (D). Moicano absorbs 3.10/min at 51% defense; Ortega is a softer target at 5.03 SApM.
- 03
Takedown reaction
OrtegaOrtega 42 (D) vs Moicano 21 (D). When the shot comes, Ortega stuffs it at 57% — Moicano is at 14%.
- 04
Counter punching
MoicanoMoicano 52 (C) vs Ortega 37 (D). Moicano's return is the live one (0.75 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Ortega's entries.
Path · Moicano
Moicano wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Ortega a long look at their first weapon.
Path · Ortega
Ortega wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Moicano a long look at durability.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Moicano is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot. Ortega is built as: Pocket striker — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Ortega — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Moicano 61 (C+) vs Ortega 35 (D). Hand speed / output lean Moicano (4.1 SLpM at 57%). Striking defense: Moicano 56 (C) vs Ortega 34 (D). Moicano absorbs 3.10/min at 51% defense; Ortega is a softer target at 5.03 SApM. Takedown reaction: Ortega 42 (D) vs Moicano 21 (D). When the shot comes, Ortega stuffs it at 57% — Moicano is at 14%.
The finish path leans strikes (34% KO/TKO vs 34% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
34%
R2
18%
R3
16%
Dist
32%
Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.9 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.14 vs -1.52 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
MoicanoTakedown reaction
14% vs 57% hips on the shot
OrtegaStriking efficiency
56% vs 38%
MoicanoRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
MoicanoPocket defense (tape)
C vs D
MoicanoPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
MoicanoDamage ratio
1.05 vs 0.70 landed/absorbed
MoicanoCounter punching
52 vs 37
MoicanoStriking defense
51% vs 46%
MoicanoTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
MoicanoStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 61 vs 80
OrtegaReach / length
72.0" vs 69.0"
MoicanoGround game (tape)
49 vs 44
MoicanoGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
OrtegaFight IQ
C 60 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
OrtegaOutput (SLpM)
3.17 vs 3.59
OrtegaDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
MoicanoCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
OrtegaTakedown mismatch
TD def 35% vs 56%
OrtegaAge-adjusted curve
37 vs 35
OrtegaLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
MoicanoStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
MoicanoChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Moicano
Tape
Renato Moicano
Fighter 4867356
Submission · R2 3:14
Beneil Dariush
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Islam Makhachev
Submission · R1 4:05
Fighter 4895362
TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R2 5:00
Fighter 4339490
KO/TKO · R2 4:11
Fighter 2951202
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Brian Ortega
Aljamain Sterling
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Fighter 4881999
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Yair Rodriguez
Submission · R3 0:58
Yair Rodriguez
KO/TKO · R1 4:11
Alexander Volkanovski
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Chan Sung Jung
Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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