OctagonEdge

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dooho Choi 73% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho Choi

Patricio Pitbull
BrazilBrazil

Patricio Pitbull

Champion · 37-9 · hybrid · Orthodox · 39 · IQ B 70

Pitbull Brothers · Brazil

VS
Dooho Choi
South KoreaSouth Korea

Dooho Choi

“The Korean Superboy”

Unranked · 17-4-1 · striker · Orthodox · 35 · IQ C+ 67

Busan Team M.A.D. · South Korea

Patricio Pitbull

26.7%

Dooho Choi

73.3%

Model win probability · confidence 84%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Choi 73 — the tape favors power striker

Dooho Choi is the model side at 73.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Choi 73 (B) vs Pitbull 35 (D). Choi's return is the live one (1.50 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Pitbull's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Choi

    Choi 73 (B) vs Pitbull 35 (D). Choi's return is the live one (1.50 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Pitbull's entries.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Choi

    Choi 67 (C+) vs Pitbull 29 (D). When the shot comes, Choi stuffs it at 79% — Pitbull is at 0%.

  3. 03

    Punching agility

    Choi

    Choi 60 (C) vs Pitbull 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Choi (4.7 SLpM at 61%).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Choi

    Choi 49 (D) vs Pitbull 32 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Choi.

Path · Pitbull

Pitbull wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Choi a long look at counter punching.

Path · Choi

Choi should keep this standing, feint the level change, and make Pitbull reach. The counter is built for a high-SApM pocket.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pitbull attacking striking defense with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Choi is built as: Power striker — porous pocket. Pitbull is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot, porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Pitbull — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Choi 73 (B) vs Pitbull 35 (D). Choi's return is the live one (1.50 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Pitbull's entries. Takedown reaction: Choi 67 (C+) vs Pitbull 29 (D). When the shot comes, Choi stuffs it at 79% — Pitbull is at 0%. Punching agility: Choi 60 (C) vs Pitbull 37 (D). Hand speed / output lean Choi (4.7 SLpM at 61%).

The finish path leans strikes (43% KO/TKO vs 12% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Pitbull attacking striking defense with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

PitbullTraitChoi
70 B
IQ
67 C+
40 D
Ground
45 D
47 D
Defense
38 D
35 D
Counter
73 B
32 D
Reaction
49 D
37 D
Agility
60 C
29 D
TD react
67 C+
82 B+
Chin
72 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
43%
Submission
12%
Decision
45%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

14%

R3

13%

Dist

45%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Takedown reaction

    0% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Choi

  • Counter punching

    35 vs 73

    Choi

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.30 vs 5.40

    Choi

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/5 UFC rows

    Choi

  • Striking differential

    -1.67 vs -0.86 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Choi

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Choi

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Choi

  • Damage ratio

    0.58 vs 0.86 landed/absorbed

    Choi

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Choi

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 35% vs 81%

    Choi

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    D vs D

    Pitbull

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Pitbull

  • Reach / length

    67.0" vs 70.0"

    Choi

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Pitbull

  • Ground game (tape)

    40 vs 45

    Choi

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 58%

    Choi

  • Fight IQ

    B 70 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Pitbull

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 60 vs 53

    Pitbull

  • Age-adjusted curve

    39 vs 35

    Choi

  • Striking defense

    52% vs 52%

    Pitbull

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Pitbull

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Pitbull

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Pitbull

Tape

PitbullMetricChoi
2.77SLpM4.67
3.90SApM6.40
53%Str Acc61%
52%Str Def50%
1.26TD Avg1.43
33%TD Acc54%
0%TD Def79%
0.47Sub Avg0.61
0.00KD/151.50
5'7"Reach5'10"
39Age35

Patricio Pitbull

L

Fighter 4199009

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 11, 2026
W

Dan Ige

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 20, 2025
L

Yair Rodriguez

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 13, 2025
W

Fighter 4034830

KO/TKO · R3 4:07

Mar 22, 2024
L

Fighter 5154454

KO/TKO · R1 2:32

Jul 30, 2023
L

Fighter 3002028

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jun 17, 2023

Dooho Choi

W

Fighter 4881997

KO/TKO · R2 4:29

May 17, 2026
W

Fighter 3821549

KO/TKO · R3 3:21

Dec 8, 2024
W

Fighter 4076472

KO/TKO · R2 3:38

Jul 21, 2024
D

Fighter 4408436

Draw · R3 5:00

Feb 5, 2023
L

Charles Jourdain

KO/TKO · R2 4:32

Dec 21, 2019
L

Fighter 2335673

KO/TKO · R2 2:36

Jan 15, 2018

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