Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio Ruffy

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Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Tsarukyan is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — high-IQ problem solver. Ruffy is built as: Power striker — live counter. Fight IQ delta is +17 toward Tsarukyan — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Tsarukyan 51 (C) vs Ruffy 12 (D). Tsarukyan brings 3.3 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Ruffy's 100% takedown defense. Timing & reaction: Ruffy 96 (A+) vs Tsarukyan 72 (B). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Ruffy. Counter punching: Ruffy 84 (A) vs Tsarukyan 64 (C+). Ruffy's return is the live one (6.00 KD/15, 9 KOs) against Tsarukyan's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (33% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.