Noche UFC: Rodriguez vs. Silva · Welterweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Ignacio Bahamondes 66% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Muslim Salikhov
ChileIgnacio Bahamondes
“La Jaula”
Unranked · 17-7 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ C 57
Valle Flow Striking · Chile
RussiaMuslim Salikhov
“King of Kung Fu”
Unranked · 22-6 · striker · Orthodox · 42 · IQ C+ 63
Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov Martial Arts School · Russia
Ignacio Bahamondes
65.6%
Muslim Salikhov
34.4%
Model win probability · confidence 75%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Bahamondes 66 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Ignacio Bahamondes is the model side at 65.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Bahamondes 68 (B) vs Salikhov 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bahamondes (6.0 SLpM at 49%).
- 01
Punching agility
BahamondesBahamondes 68 (B) vs Salikhov 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bahamondes (6.0 SLpM at 49%).
- 02
Counter punching
SalikhovSalikhov 61 (C+) vs Bahamondes 45 (D). Salikhov's return is the live one (0.50 KD/15, 8 KOs) against Bahamondes's entries.
- 03
Striking defense
BahamondesBahamondes 71 (B) vs Salikhov 61 (C+). Bahamondes absorbs 2.50/min at 56% defense; Salikhov is a softer target at 3.42 SApM.
- 04
Timing & reaction
BahamondesBahamondes 69 (B) vs Salikhov 62 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Bahamondes.
Path · Bahamondes
Volume. Bahamondes wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Salikhov a clean reset.
Path · Salikhov
Salikhov wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Bahamondes a long look at durability.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Bahamondes is built as: Volume pressure striker. Salikhov is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Salikhov — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Bahamondes 68 (B) vs Salikhov 48 (D). Hand speed / output lean Bahamondes (6.0 SLpM at 49%). Counter punching: Salikhov 61 (C+) vs Bahamondes 45 (D). Salikhov's return is the live one (0.50 KD/15, 8 KOs) against Bahamondes's entries. Striking defense: Bahamondes 71 (B) vs Salikhov 61 (C+). Bahamondes absorbs 2.50/min at 56% defense; Salikhov is a softer target at 3.42 SApM.
The finish path leans strikes (39% KO/TKO vs 18% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
15%
R3
13%
Dist
42%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.8 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Striking differential
2.30 vs -0.01 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
BahamondesDamage ratio
1.91 vs 1.00 landed/absorbed
BahamondesOutput (SLpM)
4.82 vs 3.41
BahamondesCounter punching
45 vs 61
SalikhovPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
BahamondesReach / length
75.0" vs 70.0"
BahamondesFight IQ
C 57 vs C+ 63 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
SalikhovStriking defense
56% vs 61%
SalikhovPocket defense (tape)
B vs C+
BahamondesAge-adjusted curve
28 vs 42
BahamondesStriking efficiency
45% vs 50%
SalikhovGround game (tape)
22 vs 26
SalikhovTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
BahamondesCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
BahamondesRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
SalikhovTakedown reaction
85% vs 81% hips on the shot
BahamondesGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
BahamondesStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 62 vs 55
BahamondesLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
BahamondesDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
SalikhovTakedown mismatch
TD def 85% vs 81%
BahamondesStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
BahamondesChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Bahamondes
Tape
Ignacio Bahamondes
Fighter 4423264
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4339488
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4339490
Submission · R1 2:29
Fighter 4896616
KO/TKO · R1 4:02
Fighter 3089069
KO/TKO · R1 3:34
Fighter 4193694
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Muslim Salikhov
Fighter 4685870
KO/TKO · R1 1:03
Fighter 3146349
KO/TKO · R1 0:42
Fighter 4284870
KO/TKO · R1 3:49
Fighter 3043484
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 3960071
KO/TKO · R1 3:17
Fighter 3026267
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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