OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Julia Polastri 87% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Jingnan Xiong vs Julia Polastri

Jingnan Xiong
ChinaChina

Jingnan Xiong

“The Panda”

Unranked · 19-3 · striker · Switch · 38 · IQ C 57

Phuket Top Team · China

VS
Julia Polastri
BrazilBrazil

Julia Polastri

“Psycho”

Unranked · 14-6 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 68

CWB Fighter · Brazil

Jingnan Xiong

13.2%

Julia Polastri

86.8%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Polastri 87 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Julia Polastri is the model side at 86.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Polastri (ground 38) into Xiong (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Polastri 75 (B) vs Xiong 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Polastri (6.2 SLpM at 61%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Polastri

    Polastri 75 (B) vs Xiong 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Polastri (6.2 SLpM at 61%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Polastri

    Polastri 38 (D) vs Xiong 13 (D). Polastri brings 0.6 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Xiong's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Polastri

    Polastri 68 (B) vs Xiong 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Polastri (B vs C).

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Polastri

    Polastri 41 (D) vs Xiong 31 (D). Polastri's return is the live one (0.14 KD/15, 1 KOs) against Xiong's entries.

Path · Xiong

Xiong has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 72 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Polastri

Polastri has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Xiong defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Xiong attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Polastri is built as: Volume pressure striker. Xiong is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +11 toward Polastri — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Polastri 75 (B) vs Xiong 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean Polastri (6.2 SLpM at 61%). Ground game: Polastri 38 (D) vs Xiong 13 (D). Polastri brings 0.6 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Xiong's 85% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Polastri 68 (B) vs Xiong 57 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Polastri (B vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Xiong attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

XiongTraitPolastri
57 C
IQ
68 B
13 D
Ground
38 D
67 C+
Defense
72 B
31 D
Counter
41 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
42 D
Agility
75 B
59 C
TD react
68 C+
91 A+
Chin
87 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
19%
Submission
29%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

20%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Polastri (ground 38) into Xiong (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    -0.41 vs 4.18 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Polastri

  • Damage ratio

    0.86 vs 2.70 landed/absorbed

    Polastri

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.56 vs 6.63

    Polastri

  • Ground game (tape)

    13 vs 38

    Polastri

  • Striking efficiency

    36% vs 60%

    Polastri

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Polastri

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs B 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Polastri

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Polastri

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Xiong

  • Counter punching

    31 vs 41

    Polastri

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 28

    Polastri

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 55%

    Xiong

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Polastri

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Polastri

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Polastri (ground 38) into Xiong (TD reaction 59). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Polastri

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Polastri

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Polastri

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Xiong

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 82%

    Xiong

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Xiong

  • Reach / length

    64.0" vs 64.0"

    Xiong

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Xiong

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Xiong

Tape

XiongMetricPolastri
4.53SLpM6.22
3.01SApM2.42
41%Str Acc61%
59%Str Def56%
0.00TD Avg0.62
0%TD Acc80%
85%TD Def83%
0.00Sub Avg0.31
0.10KD/150.14
5'4"Reach5'4"
38Age28

Jingnan Xiong

L

Fighter 3115931

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 30, 2026
W

Fighter 4236540

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 14, 2025
W

Fighter 3996103

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Oct 1, 2022
W

Fighter 4421752

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Jan 14, 2022
W

Fighter 3331917

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Sep 3, 2021
W

Fighter 4291858

Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00

Oct 31, 2020

Julia Polastri

L

Fighter 5139556

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 25, 2026
W

Fighter 3102702

KO/TKO · R3 2:56

Oct 11, 2025
L

Fighter 4700617

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 29, 2025
W

Fighter 4565671

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Oct 12, 2024
L

Fighter 5007635

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 15, 2024
W

Fighter 5145494

Submission · R2 4:05

Sep 13, 2023

Your pick

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