OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Andre Lima 54% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Namsrai Batbayar vs Andre Lima

Namsrai Batbayar
MongoliaMongolia

Namsrai Batbayar

“Steppe Warrior”

Unranked · 9-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ D 49

One Team Fighting Center · Mongolia

VS
Andre Lima
BrazilBrazil

Andre Lima

“Mascote”

Unranked · 11-1 · striker · Orthodox · 27 · IQ B 73

Team Lucas Mineiro · Brazil

Namsrai Batbayar

45.9%

Andre Lima

54.1%

Model win probability · confidence 62%

Desk

45.9% / 54.1%

Market

29.2% / 70.8%

Moneyline

+230 / -277

Edge

+16.7% Batbayar

Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk is well off the market on Batbayar. Not a betting tip.

Why the model leans this way

Lima 54 — the tape favors pocket striker

Andre Lima is the model side at 54.1% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Lima 82 (B+) vs Batbayar 47 (D). When the shot comes, Lima stuffs it at 100% — Batbayar is at 74%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Lima

    Lima 82 (B+) vs Batbayar 47 (D). When the shot comes, Lima stuffs it at 100% — Batbayar is at 74%.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Lima

    Lima 91 (A+) vs Batbayar 60 (C). Lima has been finished by strikes 0 times; Batbayar 0.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Lima

    Lima 73 (B) vs Batbayar 49 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lima (B vs D).

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Batbayar

    Batbayar 63 (C+) vs Lima 47 (D). Batbayar brings 2.9 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Lima's 100% takedown defense.

Path · Batbayar

Batbayar wins by forcing the fight into their best skill and denying Lima a long look at durability.

Path · Lima

Lima has to stuff the first takedown (82 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Lima is built as: Pocket striker — elite sprawl. Batbayar is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +24 toward Lima — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Lima 82 (B+) vs Batbayar 47 (D). When the shot comes, Lima stuffs it at 100% — Batbayar is at 74%. Durability: Lima 91 (A+) vs Batbayar 60 (C). Lima has been finished by strikes 0 times; Batbayar 0. Fight IQ: Lima 73 (B) vs Batbayar 49 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Lima (B vs D).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (48%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

BatbayarTraitLima
49 D
IQ
73 B
63 C+
Ground
47 D
66 C+
Defense
66 C+
56 C
Counter
51 C
65 C+
Reaction
69 B
62 C+
Agility
59 C
47 D
TD react
82 B+
60 C
Chin
91 A+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
18%
Submission
33%
Decision
48%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

14%

R3

14%

Dist

48%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Fight IQ

    D 49 vs B 73 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Lima

  • Takedown reaction

    74% vs 100% hips on the shot

    Lima

  • Striking differential

    1.59 vs 0.75 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Batbayar

  • Ground game (tape)

    63 vs 47

    Batbayar

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Lima

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Batbayar

  • Damage ratio

    1.56 vs 1.22 landed/absorbed

    Batbayar

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Lima

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 57%

    Lima

  • Counter punching

    56 vs 51

    Batbayar

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 63%

    Lima

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 90%

    Lima

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Batbayar

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.44 vs 4.08

    Batbayar

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Lima

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 54

    Lima

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Batbayar

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Lima

  • Reach / length

    68.0" vs 67.5"

    Batbayar

  • Age-adjusted curve

    25 vs 27

    Batbayar

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Batbayar

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Batbayar

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Batbayar

Tape

BatbayarMetricLima
4.44SLpM3.94
3.05SApM3.40
52%Str Acc63%
59%Str Def63%
2.85TD Avg1.11
30%TD Acc60%
74%TD Def100%
0.95Sub Avg0.93
0.51KD/150.00
5'8"Reach5'8"
25Age27

Namsrai Batbayar

W

Fighter 5328873

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 4:45

Aug 22, 2025
W

Fighter 5328872

KO/TKO · R2 0:46

May 23, 2025
W

Fighter 5289498

KO/TKO · R1 4:07

May 11, 2024
W

Fighter 4693642

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 2:25

Mar 22, 2024
W

Fighter 5328871

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 -

Oct 27, 2023
L

Fighter 5140897

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R2 1:23

Nov 19, 2022

Andre Lima

L

Kevin Borjas

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jun 20, 2026
W

Fighter 4236496

Submission · R3 3:05

Mar 15, 2025
W

Fighter 5143333

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Sep 7, 2024
W

Fighter 4815978

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Jun 1, 2024
W

Fighter 5145496

DQ · R2 2:52

Mar 23, 2024
W

Fighter 5147579

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 11, 2023

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.