UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Casey O'Neill 86% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda Moura
AustraliaCasey O'Neill
“King”
Unranked · 11-2 · striker · Orthodox · 28 · IQ B 69
Xtreme Couture · Australia
BrazilEduarda Moura
“Ronda”
Unranked · 12-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ B 75
Galpao Da Luta · Brazil
Casey O'Neill
85.6%
Eduarda Moura
14.4%
Model win probability · confidence 86%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
O'Neill 86 — the tape favors power striker
Casey O'Neill is the model side at 85.6% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Moura (ground 60) into O'Neill (TD reaction 49). Punching agility is the clearest separator: O'Neill 84 (A) vs Moura 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Neill (7.9 SLpM at 58%).
- 01
Punching agility
O'NeillO'Neill 84 (A) vs Moura 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Neill (7.9 SLpM at 58%).
- 02
Takedown reaction
MouraMoura 74 (B) vs O'Neill 49 (D). When the shot comes, Moura stuffs it at 80% — O'Neill is at 79%.
- 03
Ground game
MouraMoura 60 (C+) vs O'Neill 41 (D). Moura brings 3.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into O'Neill's 79% takedown defense.
- 04
Counter punching
O'NeillO'Neill 52 (C) vs Moura 41 (D). O'Neill's return is the live one (0.65 KD/15, 5 KOs) against Moura's entries.
Path · O'Neill
O'Neill has to stuff the first takedown (49 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 68 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
Path · Moura
Moura has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make O'Neill defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moura attacking ground game with durability.
Full read
Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. O'Neill is built as: Power striker — suspect hips against the shot. Moura is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -5 toward Moura — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Punching agility: O'Neill 84 (A) vs Moura 42 (D). Hand speed / output lean O'Neill (7.9 SLpM at 58%). Takedown reaction: Moura 74 (B) vs O'Neill 49 (D). When the shot comes, Moura stuffs it at 80% — O'Neill is at 79%. Ground game: Moura 60 (C+) vs O'Neill 41 (D). Moura brings 3.7 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into O'Neill's 79% takedown defense.
The finish path leans strikes (33% KO/TKO vs 26% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Moura attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.
Duration
R1
30%
R2
15%
R3
13%
Dist
42%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.7 minutes.
Style matchup
Grappler historical edge: Moura (ground 60) into O'Neill (TD reaction 49).
Striking differential
5.96 vs -0.22 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
O'NeillDamage ratio
4.44 vs 0.92 landed/absorbed
O'NeillOutput (SLpM)
7.69 vs 2.67
O'NeillPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
O'NeillTakedown reaction
79% vs 80% hips on the shot
MouraGround game (tape)
41 vs 60
MouraStriking efficiency
51% vs 37%
O'NeillStriking defense
53% vs 63%
MouraGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
MouraRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
O'NeillCounter punching
52 vs 41
O'NeillFight IQ
B 69 vs B 75 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
MouraStyle interaction
Grappler historical edge: Moura (ground 60) into O'Neill (TD reaction 49).
MouraPocket defense (tape)
B vs B
O'NeillReach / length
69.0" vs 67.0"
O'NeillTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
O'NeillStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 56 vs 62
MouraAge-adjusted curve
28 vs 32
O'NeillCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
O'NeillDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
MouraTakedown mismatch
TD def 81% vs 80%
O'NeillLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
O'NeillChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
O'Neill
Tape
Casey O'Neill
Fighter 4871203
KO/TKO · R1 3:11
Fighter 5110469
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4227318
Submission · R2 1:18
Jennifer Maia
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 2504943
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4339152
KO/TKO · R2 4:47
Eduarda Moura
Fighter 4215200
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Lauren Murphy
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 4044708
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Denise Gomes
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4399703
KO/TKO · R2 2:14
Fighter 5143887
Submission · R1 4:00
Your pick
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