OctagonEdge

UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2 · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Gable Steveson 91% · KO/TKO · Distance · waiting on the result

Gable Steveson vs Sean Sharaf

Gable Steveson
USAUSA

Gable Steveson

Unranked · 4-0 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B+ 80

Jackson-Wink MMA · USA

VS
Sean Sharaf
USAUSA

Sean Sharaf

“The Smoke”

Unranked · 4-2 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ D 50

Xtreme Couture · USA

Gable Steveson

91.0%

Sean Sharaf

9.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Steveson 91 — the tape favors power striker

Gable Steveson is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Counter punching is the clearest separator: Steveson 59 (C) vs Sharaf 13 (D). Steveson's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Sharaf's entries.

  1. 01

    Counter punching

    Steveson

    Steveson 59 (C) vs Sharaf 13 (D). Steveson's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Sharaf's entries.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Steveson

    Steveson 91 (A+) vs Sharaf 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Steveson (16.3 SLpM at 72%).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Steveson

    Steveson 66 (C+) vs Sharaf 33 (D). Steveson absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Sharaf is a softer target at 7.10 SApM.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Steveson

    Steveson 80 (B+) vs Sharaf 50 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Steveson (B+ vs D).

Path · Steveson

Volume. Steveson wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Sharaf a clean reset.

Path · Sharaf

Sharaf wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Steveson a long look at punching agility.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Sharaf attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Steveson is built as: Power striker — high-IQ problem solver. Sharaf is built as: Volume pressure striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +31 toward Steveson — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Counter punching: Steveson 59 (C) vs Sharaf 13 (D). Steveson's return is the live one (0.70 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Sharaf's entries. Punching agility: Steveson 91 (A+) vs Sharaf 47 (D). Hand speed / output lean Steveson (16.3 SLpM at 72%). Striking defense: Steveson 66 (C+) vs Sharaf 33 (D). Steveson absorbs 1.40/min at 42% defense; Sharaf is a softer target at 7.10 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (55% KO/TKO vs 6% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Sharaf attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

StevesonTraitSharaf
80 B+
IQ
50 D
12 D
Ground
19 D
66 C+
Defense
33 D
59 C
Counter
13 D
64 C+
Reaction
36 D
91 A+
Agility
47 D
69 B
TD react
67 C+
70 B
Chin
77 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
55%
Submission
6%
Decision
39%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

31%

R2

16%

R3

15%

Dist

39%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Damage ratio

    7.08 vs 0.79 landed/absorbed

    Steveson

  • Striking differential

    7.30 vs -1.32 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Steveson

  • Fight IQ

    B+ 80 vs D 50 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Steveson

  • Counter punching

    59 vs 13

    Steveson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 4/6 UFC rows

    Steveson

  • Striking efficiency

    72% vs 44%

    Steveson

  • Output (SLpM)

    8.50 vs 5.08

    Steveson

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Steveson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs D

    Steveson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Steveson

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 19

    Sharaf

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Steveson

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 77.0"

    Sharaf

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sharaf

  • Age-adjusted curve

    26 vs 33

    Steveson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sharaf

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 81% hips on the shot

    Steveson

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 52 vs 55

    Sharaf

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Steveson

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 88% vs 81%

    Steveson

  • Striking defense

    44% vs 44%

    Sharaf

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Steveson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Steveson

Tape

StevesonMetricSharaf
16.29SLpM7.41
1.40SApM7.10
72%Str Acc43%
42%Str Def45%
0.00TD Avg0.93
0%TD Acc11%
85%TD Def81%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.70KD/150.00
6'2"Reach6'5"
26Age33

Gable Steveson

W

Fighter 5293987

KO/TKO · R1 2:31

Jul 11, 2026
W

Fighter 5332608

KO/TKO · R1 3:50

Feb 20, 2026
W

Fighter 5332609

KO/TKO · R1 0:24

Nov 23, 2025
W

Fighter 5304649

KO/TKO · R1 1:38

Sep 12, 2025

Sean Sharaf

L

Fighter 5239615

KO/TKO · R2 3:49

Dec 14, 2025
L

Junior Tafa

KO/TKO · R2 2:15

Oct 12, 2024
W

Fighter 5240965

KO/TKO · R1 3:19

Sep 7, 2024
W

Fighter 5223430

KO/TKO · R1 4:31

Apr 4, 2024
W

Fighter 5240974

KO/TKO · R1 0:09

Jul 2, 2023
W

Fighter 4701287

TKO (Ground and Pound) · R1 1:10

Sep 23, 2021

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.