OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Manoel Sousa 88% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Manoel Sousa / Decision - Unanimous)

Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda

Manoel Sousa
BrazilBrazil

Manoel Sousa

“Manumito”

Unranked · 15-1 · striker · Orthodox · 29 · IQ B 74

Academia Octógono · Brazil

VS
Richie Miranda
USAUSA

Richie Miranda

“El Machete”

Unranked · 13-2 · hybrid · Southpaw · 32 · IQ B 69

Bloodline Combat · USA

Manoel Sousa

87.7%

Richie Miranda

12.3%

Model win probability · confidence 85%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sousa 88 — the tape favors pocket striker

Manoel Sousa is the model side at 87.7% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sousa (ground 36) into Miranda (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Sousa 58 (C) vs Miranda 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sousa (4.2 SLpM at 53%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Sousa

    Sousa 58 (C) vs Miranda 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sousa (4.2 SLpM at 53%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Sousa

    Sousa 36 (D) vs Miranda 16 (D). Sousa brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Miranda's 85% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Sousa

    Sousa 47 (D) vs Miranda 38 (D). Sousa's return is the live one (0.35 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Miranda's entries.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Sousa

    Sousa 66 (C+) vs Miranda 57 (C). Sousa absorbs 3.15/min at 60% defense; Miranda is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Sousa

Sousa has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Miranda defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Miranda

Miranda has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 66 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Miranda attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sousa is built as: Pocket striker. Miranda is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — southpaw. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Sousa — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Sousa 58 (C) vs Miranda 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sousa (4.2 SLpM at 53%). Ground game: Sousa 36 (D) vs Miranda 16 (D). Sousa brings 0.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Miranda's 85% takedown defense. Counter punching: Sousa 47 (D) vs Miranda 38 (D). Sousa's return is the live one (0.35 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Miranda's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (29% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Miranda attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SousaTraitMiranda
74 B
IQ
69 B
36 D
Ground
16 D
66 C+
Defense
57 C
47 D
Counter
38 D
68 C+
Reaction
59 C
58 C
Agility
38 D
69 B
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
29%
Submission
29%
Decision
42%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

24%

R2

16%

R3

18%

Dist

42%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.3 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Sousa (ground 36) into Miranda (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Striking differential

    1.00 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Sousa

  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 0%

    Sousa

  • Damage ratio

    1.32 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Sousa

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.15 vs 0.00

    Sousa

  • Ground game (tape)

    36 vs 16

    Sousa

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sousa

  • Striking defense

    60% vs 68%

    Miranda

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Sousa

  • Reach / length

    70.0" vs 74.0"

    Miranda

  • Counter punching

    47 vs 38

    Sousa

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Sousa

  • Fight IQ

    B 74 vs B 69 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Sousa

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Sousa

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Sousa (ground 36) into Miranda (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Sousa

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sousa

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Sousa

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 32

    Sousa

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Sousa

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Sousa

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sousa

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sousa

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Sousa

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sousa

Tape

SousaMetricMiranda
4.15SLpM0.00
3.15SApM4.60
53%Str Acc0%
60%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
1.65Sub Avg0.00
0.35KD/150.10
5'10"Reach6'2"
29Age32

Manoel Sousa

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Richie Miranda

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.