OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Middleweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Luis Felipe Dias 56% · Submission · Distance · waiting on the result

Matthieu Letho Duclos vs Luis Felipe Dias

Matthieu Letho Duclos
FranceFrance

Matthieu Letho Duclos

Unranked · 10-3 · striker · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C 52

Woirin Team Elite · France

VS
Luis Felipe Dias
BrazilBrazil

Luis Felipe Dias

Unranked · 18-5 · wrestler · Orthodox · 31 · IQ C+ 62

Parana Vale Tudo · Brazil

Matthieu Letho Duclos

43.5%

Luis Felipe Dias

56.5%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Dias 56 — the tape favors chain-wrestling grappler

Luis Felipe Dias is the model side at 56.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Dias (ground 85) into Duclos (TD reaction 59). Ground game is the clearest separator: Dias 85 (A) vs Letho Duclos 12 (D). Dias brings 4.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Letho Duclos's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Dias

    Dias 85 (A) vs Letho Duclos 12 (D). Dias brings 4.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Letho Duclos's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Duclos

    Letho Duclos 83 (B+) vs Dias 70 (B). Letho Duclos has been finished by strikes 0 times; Dias 0.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Dias

    Dias 45 (D) vs Letho Duclos 34 (D). Dias's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Letho Duclos's entries.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Dias

    Dias 62 (C+) vs Letho Duclos 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Dias (C+ vs C).

Path · Duclos

Letho Duclos has to stuff the first takedown (59 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 63 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Dias

Dias has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Letho Duclos defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Dias is built as: Chain-wrestling grappler. Letho Duclos is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Dias — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Dias 85 (A) vs Letho Duclos 12 (D). Dias brings 4.5 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Letho Duclos's 85% takedown defense. Durability: Letho Duclos 83 (B+) vs Dias 70 (B). Letho Duclos has been finished by strikes 0 times; Dias 0. Counter punching: Dias 45 (D) vs Letho Duclos 34 (D). Dias's return is the live one (0.12 KD/15, 2 KOs) against Letho Duclos's entries.

The finish path leans the mat (39% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

DuclosTraitDias
52 C
IQ
62 C+
12 D
Ground
85 A
65 C+
Defense
63 C+
34 D
Counter
45 D
65 C+
Reaction
58 C
45 D
Agility
46 D
59 C
TD react
57 C
83 B+
Chin
70 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
39%
Decision
31%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

29%

R2

19%

R3

21%

Dist

31%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.4 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Dias (ground 85) into Duclos (TD reaction 59).

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 85

    Dias

  • Striking differential

    0.89 vs -0.80 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Duclos

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Dias

  • Damage ratio

    1.29 vs 0.77 landed/absorbed

    Duclos

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs C+ 62 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Dias

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.93 vs 2.63

    Duclos

  • Striking efficiency

    40% vs 48%

    Dias

  • Counter punching

    34 vs 45

    Dias

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Duclos

  • Reach / length

    77.0" vs 74.0"

    Duclos

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Dias (ground 85) into Duclos (TD reaction 59).

    Dias

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Duclos

  • Striking defense

    62% vs 64%

    Dias

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 67% hips on the shot

    Duclos

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Duclos

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 87% vs 69%

    Duclos

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Duclos

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Dias

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Duclos

  • Age-adjusted curve

    31 vs 31

    Dias

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 48 vs 48

    Duclos

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Duclos

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Duclos

Tape

DuclosMetricDias
3.93SLpM2.86
3.22SApM3.60
40%Str Acc52%
60%Str Def62%
0.00TD Avg4.52
0%TD Acc57%
85%TD Def67%
0.00Sub Avg1.13
0.10KD/150.12
6'5"Reach6'2"
31Age31

Matthieu Letho Duclos

W

Fighter 5287881

TKO (Injury) · R1 1:04

Apr 11, 2026
W

Fighter 4921799

KO/TKO · R2 4:28

Nov 7, 2025
W

Fighter 4915938

KO/TKO · R2 4:21

Apr 25, 2025
W

Fighter 5229938

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jan 10, 2025
L

Fighter 5138111

KO/TKO · R2 2:38

Aug 28, 2024
W

Fighter 5087440

TKO - Injury · R1 1:18

Feb 10, 2024

Luis Felipe Dias

W

Fighter 5341761

KO/TKO · R1 3:40

May 30, 2026
W

Fighter 5311771

Submission · R2 4:37

Oct 8, 2025
W

Fighter 5310756

Submission (Rear Naked Choke) · R1 0:40

Jul 15, 2023
W

Fighter 4706928

KO/TKO · R1 0:28

Feb 11, 2023
L

Fighter 3147309

KO/TKO · R3 0:14

Jul 30, 2022
L

Fighter 3127609

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Apr 30, 2022

Your pick

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