Morgan Charrière vs Felipe Lima

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Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Lima is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Charrière is built as: Pocket striker — porous pocket. Fight IQ delta is +11 toward Lima — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Striking defense: Lima 79 (B+) vs Charrière 32 (D). Lima absorbs 2.00/min at 65% defense; Charrière is a softer target at 4.80 SApM. Timing & reaction: Lima 72 (B) vs Charrière 36 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Lima. Durability: Lima 91 (A+) vs Charrière 76 (B+). Lima has been finished by strikes 0 times; Charrière 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (61%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Charrière attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.