UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Featherweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mairon Santos 65% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

EnglandNathaniel Wood
“The Last Kingsman”
Unranked · 23-6 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 68
Great Britain Top Team · England
Nathaniel Wood
34.8%
Mairon Santos
65.2%
Model win probability · confidence 74%
No market posted yet.
Why the model leans this way
Mairon Santos is the model side at 65.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Santos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%.
Takedown reaction
SantosSantos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%.
Timing & reaction
SantosSantos 90 (A) vs Wood 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Santos.
Counter punching
SantosSantos 68 (C+) vs Wood 38 (D). Santos's return is the live one (1.00 KD/15, 4 KOs) against Wood's entries.
Ground game
WoodWood 41 (D) vs Santos 12 (D). Wood brings 1.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Santos's 100% takedown defense.
Path · Wood
Wood wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Santos a long look at timing & reaction.
Path · Santos
Santos has to stuff the first takedown (79 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 59 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Santos is built as: Pocket striker. Wood is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Santos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Santos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%. Timing & reaction: Santos 90 (A) vs Wood 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Santos. Counter punching: Santos 68 (C+) vs Wood 38 (D). Santos's return is the live one (1.00 KD/15, 4 KOs) against Wood's entries.
The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
R1
26%
R2
13%
R3
11%
Dist
50%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Takedown reaction
58% vs 100% hips on the shot
Ground game (tape)
41 vs 12
Damage ratio
1.75 vs 2.37 landed/absorbed
Timing & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
Counter punching
38 vs 68
Output (SLpM)
5.21 vs 2.85
Pocket defense (tape)
C vs A
Fight IQ
C+ 68 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
Striking defense
53% vs 64%
Striking differential
2.24 vs 1.65 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
Cardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
Reach / length
69.0" vs 72.0"
Recency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows
Grappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
Age-adjusted curve
33 vs 26
Punching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
Strength of schedule
Opp. quality 63 vs 55
Striking efficiency
53% vs 51%
Takedown mismatch
TD def 60% vs 90%
Durability
0 vs 0 KO losses
Layoff / rust
Time since last fight
Style interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.
Championship / 5-round
Three-round fight
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Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
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