UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · Featherweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mairon Santos 65% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result

Nathaniel Wood vs Mairon Santos

Nathaniel Wood
EnglandEngland

Nathaniel Wood

The Last Kingsman

Unranked · 23-6 · striker · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 68

Great Britain Top Team · England

VS
Mairon Santos
BrazilBrazil

Mairon Santos

The Legend

Unranked · 18-1 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ B+ 80

Xtreme Couture · Brazil

Nathaniel Wood

34.8%

Mairon Santos

65.2%

Model win probability · confidence 74%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Santos 65 — the tape favors pocket striker

Mairon Santos is the model side at 65.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Santos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Santos

    Santos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%.

  2. 02

    Timing & reaction

    Santos

    Santos 90 (A) vs Wood 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Santos.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Santos

    Santos 68 (C+) vs Wood 38 (D). Santos's return is the live one (1.00 KD/15, 4 KOs) against Wood's entries.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Wood

    Wood 41 (D) vs Santos 12 (D). Wood brings 1.4 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Santos's 100% takedown defense.

Path · Wood

Wood wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Santos a long look at timing & reaction.

Path · Santos

Santos has to stuff the first takedown (79 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 59 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Santos is built as: Pocket striker. Wood is built as: Volume pressure striker — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +12 toward Santos — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Santos 79 (B+) vs Wood 35 (D). When the shot comes, Santos stuffs it at 100% — Wood is at 58%. Timing & reaction: Santos 90 (A) vs Wood 48 (D). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Santos. Counter punching: Santos 68 (C+) vs Wood 38 (D). Santos's return is the live one (1.00 KD/15, 4 KOs) against Wood's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

WoodTraitSantos
68 C+
IQ
80 B+
41 D
Ground
12 D
59 C
Defense
86 A
38 D
Counter
68 C+
48 D
Reaction
90 A
65 C+
Agility
70 B
35 D
TD react
79 B+
91 A+
Chin
90 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
37%
Submission
12%
Decision
50%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

26%

R2

13%

R3

11%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.5 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Takedown reaction

    58% vs 100% hips on the shot

    Santos
  • Ground game (tape)

    41 vs 12

    Wood
  • Damage ratio

    1.75 vs 2.37 landed/absorbed

    Santos
  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Santos
  • Counter punching

    38 vs 68

    Santos
  • Output (SLpM)

    5.21 vs 2.85

    Wood
  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs A

    Santos
  • Fight IQ

    C+ 68 vs B+ 80 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Santos
  • Striking defense

    53% vs 64%

    Santos
  • Striking differential

    2.24 vs 1.65 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Wood
  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Santos
  • Reach / length

    69.0" vs 72.0"

    Santos
  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 6/6 UFC rows

    Santos
  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Wood
  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 26

    Santos
  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Santos
  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 63 vs 55

    Wood
  • Striking efficiency

    53% vs 51%

    Wood
  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 60% vs 90%

    Santos
  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Wood
  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Wood
  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Wood
  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Wood

Tape

WoodMetricSantos
5.64SLpM3.33
3.16SApM1.20
56%Str Acc56%
52%Str Def63%
1.35TD Avg0.00
49%TD Acc0%
58%TD Def100%
0.47Sub Avg0.00
0.33KD/151.00
5'9"Reach6'0"
33Age26

Nathaniel Wood

W

Losene Keita

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 21, 2026
W

Fighter 5223435

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 25, 2025
W

Morgan Charrière

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 22, 2025
W

Fighter 2514828

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 28, 2024
L

Muhammad Naimov

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Oct 21, 2023
W

Fighter 3074464

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Jul 22, 2023

Mairon Santos

W

Muhammad Naimov

KO/TKO · R3 0:21

Dec 6, 2025
W

Fighter 4289274

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

May 17, 2025
W

Fighter 5060394

Decision - Split · R3 5:00

Mar 9, 2025
W

Fighter 5204223

KO/TKO · R2 1:30

Aug 25, 2024
W

Fighter 5204222

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Aug 21, 2024
W

Fighter 4334759

Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00

Mar 25, 2023

Your pick

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