OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Welterweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Billy Ray Goff 54% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Ty Miller / KO/TKO)

Billy Ray Goff vs Ty Miller

Billy Ray Goff
USAUSA

Billy Ray Goff

Unranked · 9-5 · striker · Switch · 28 · IQ C 53

Team Dexter Vale Tudo · USA

VS
Ty Miller
USAUSA

Ty Miller

“Thriller”

Unranked · 8-0 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C 59

Fit NHB · USA

Billy Ray Goff

53.5%

Ty Miller

46.5%

Model win probability · confidence 46%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Goff 54 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Billy Ray Goff is the model side at 53.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Goff (ground 28) into Miller (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Goff 28 (D) vs Miller 12 (D). Goff brings 1.8 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Miller's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Goff

    Goff 28 (D) vs Miller 12 (D). Goff brings 1.8 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Miller's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Miller

    Miller 69 (B) vs Goff 60 (C+). When the shot comes, Miller stuffs it at 85% — Goff is at 78%.

  3. 03

    Fight IQ

    Miller

    Miller 59 (C) vs Goff 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Miller (C vs C).

  4. 04

    Timing & reaction

    Miller

    Miller 71 (B) vs Goff 65 (C+). The reaction proxy — defense plus absorb plus knockdown timing — sits with Miller.

Path · Goff

Goff has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Miller defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Miller

Miller has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 73 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Goff is built as: Volume pressure striker. Miller is built as: Volume pressure striker. Fight IQ delta is -7 toward Miller — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Goff 28 (D) vs Miller 12 (D). Goff brings 1.8 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Miller's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Miller 69 (B) vs Goff 60 (C+). When the shot comes, Miller stuffs it at 85% — Goff is at 78%. Fight IQ: Miller 59 (C) vs Goff 53 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Miller (C vs C).

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GoffTraitMiller
53 C
IQ
59 C
28 D
Ground
12 D
73 B
Defense
73 B
28 D
Counter
26 D
65 C+
Reaction
71 B
73 B
Agility
70 B
60 C+
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

23%

R2

13%

R3

13%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Goff (ground 28) into Miller (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

  • Ground game (tape)

    28 vs 12

    Goff

  • Damage ratio

    3.81 vs 3.43 landed/absorbed

    Goff

  • Striking differential

    5.54 vs 5.07 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Goff

  • Fight IQ

    C 53 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Miller

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Miller

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 77.0"

    Miller

  • Striking efficiency

    48% vs 41%

    Goff

  • Takedown reaction

    78% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Miller

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Goff

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Goff (ground 28) into Miller (TD reaction 69). Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.

    Goff

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Miller

  • Output (SLpM)

    7.51 vs 7.16

    Goff

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Goff

  • Counter punching

    28 vs 26

    Goff

  • Striking defense

    53% vs 54%

    Miller

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 78% vs 85%

    Miller

  • Age-adjusted curve

    28 vs 26

    Miller

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Goff

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Miller

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Goff

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Goff

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Goff

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs B

    Goff

Tape

GoffMetricMiller
7.51SLpM7.16
1.97SApM2.09
48%Str Acc41%
53%Str Def54%
1.75TD Avg0.00
17%TD Acc0%
78%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.40KD/150.62
6'0"Reach6'5"
28Age26

Billy Ray Goff

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ty Miller

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.