OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Women's Flyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Juliana Miller 69% · Submission · Round 1 · scored hit (Juliana Miller / Submission)

Juliana Miller vs Ravena Oliveira

Juliana Miller
USAUSA

Juliana Miller

“Killer”

Unranked · 6-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ C 57

10th Planet Jiu-Jitsu · USA

VS
Ravena Oliveira
BrazilBrazil

Ravena Oliveira

“Kenoudy”

Unranked · 7-5-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ D 42

Life MMA · Brazil

Juliana Miller

69.2%

Ravena Oliveira

30.8%

Model win probability · confidence 64%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Miller 69 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Juliana Miller is the model side at 69.2% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Miller (ground 60) into Oliveira (TD reaction 54). Ground game is the clearest separator: Miller 60 (C+) vs Oliveira 29 (D). Miller brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Oliveira's 82% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Miller

    Miller 60 (C+) vs Oliveira 29 (D). Miller brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Oliveira's 82% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Miller

    Miller 57 (C) vs Oliveira 42 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Miller (C vs D).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Oliveira

    Oliveira 85 (A) vs Miller 73 (B). Oliveira has been finished by strikes 0 times; Miller 0.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Miller

    Miller 66 (C+) vs Oliveira 54 (C). When the shot comes, Miller stuffs it at 76% — Oliveira is at 82%.

Path · Miller

Miller has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Oliveira defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Oliveira

Oliveira has to stuff the first takedown (54 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 62 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Miller is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Oliveira is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Fight IQ delta is +14 toward Miller — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Miller 60 (C+) vs Oliveira 29 (D). Miller brings 2.2 TD/15 and 4 sub wins into Oliveira's 82% takedown defense. Fight IQ: Miller 57 (C) vs Oliveira 42 (D). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Miller (C vs D). Durability: Oliveira 85 (A) vs Miller 73 (B). Oliveira has been finished by strikes 0 times; Miller 0.

The finish path leans the mat (53% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

MillerTraitOliveira
57 C
IQ
42 D
60 C+
Ground
29 D
62 C+
Defense
61 C+
42 D
Counter
34 D
64 C+
Reaction
64 C+
45 D
Agility
34 D
66 C+
TD react
54 C
73 B
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
25%
Submission
53%
Decision
22%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

32%

R2

21%

R3

24%

Dist

22%

Most likely: Round 1. Expected 8.7 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Miller (ground 60) into Oliveira (TD reaction 54).

  • Ground game (tape)

    60 vs 29

    Miller

  • Striking differential

    -1.02 vs -2.21 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Miller

  • Fight IQ

    C 57 vs D 42 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Miller

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Miller

  • Takedown reaction

    76% vs 82% hips on the shot

    Miller

  • Damage ratio

    0.72 vs 0.44 landed/absorbed

    Miller

  • Output (SLpM)

    2.65 vs 1.77

    Miller

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Oliveira

  • Counter punching

    42 vs 34

    Miller

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Miller

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Miller (ground 60) into Oliveira (TD reaction 54).

    Miller

  • Striking efficiency

    50% vs 46%

    Miller

  • Striking defense

    63% vs 64%

    Oliveira

  • Reach / length

    66.0" vs 65.0"

    Miller

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C+

    Miller

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 76% vs 82%

    Oliveira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Miller

  • Age-adjusted curve

    30 vs 29

    Oliveira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Miller

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Oliveira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Miller

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Miller

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Miller

Tape

MillerMetricOliveira
2.65SLpM1.77
3.67SApM3.98
50%Str Acc46%
63%Str Def64%
2.16TD Avg0.74
29%TD Acc50%
76%TD Def82%
1.20Sub Avg0.00
0.28KD/150.10
5'6"Reach5'5"
30Age29

Juliana Miller

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Ravena Oliveira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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