OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Women's Strawweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Stephanie Luciano 91% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Stephanie Luciano / Submission)

Marina Spasić vs Stephanie Luciano

Marina Spasić
SerbiaSerbia

Marina Spasić

“Maki Beki”

Unranked · 7-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 54

Borilački Klub CDS Novi Sad · Serbia

VS
Stephanie Luciano
BrazilBrazil

Stephanie Luciano

“Rondinha”

Unranked · 8-2-1 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C+ 64

Gordinho Fight Team · Brazil

Marina Spasić

9.0%

Stephanie Luciano

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Luciano 91 — the tape favors pocket striker

Stephanie Luciano is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Luciano (ground 44) into Spasić (TD reaction 55). Ground game is the clearest separator: Luciano 44 (D) vs Spasić 12 (D). Luciano brings 1.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Spasić's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Luciano

    Luciano 44 (D) vs Spasić 12 (D). Luciano brings 1.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Spasić's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Punching agility

    Luciano

    Luciano 59 (C) vs Spasić 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Luciano (5.2 SLpM at 49%).

  3. 03

    Takedown reaction

    Luciano

    Luciano 67 (C+) vs Spasić 55 (C). When the shot comes, Luciano stuffs it at 80% — Spasić is at 85%.

  4. 04

    Striking defense

    Luciano

    Luciano 69 (B) vs Spasić 57 (C). Luciano absorbs 2.78/min at 58% defense; Spasić is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

Path · Spasić

Spasić has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 69 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

Path · Luciano

Luciano has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Spasić defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Spasić attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Luciano is built as: Pocket striker. Spasić is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +10 toward Luciano — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Luciano 44 (D) vs Spasić 12 (D). Luciano brings 1.3 TD/15 and 2 sub wins into Spasić's 85% takedown defense. Punching agility: Luciano 59 (C) vs Spasić 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Luciano (5.2 SLpM at 49%). Takedown reaction: Luciano 67 (C+) vs Spasić 55 (C). When the shot comes, Luciano stuffs it at 80% — Spasić is at 85%.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Spasić attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SpasićTraitLuciano
54 C
IQ
64 C+
12 D
Ground
44 D
57 C
Defense
69 B
37 D
Counter
34 D
59 C
Reaction
63 C+
38 D
Agility
59 C
55 C
TD react
67 C+
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
15%
Submission
33%
Decision
52%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

16%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.1 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Luciano (ground 44) into Spasić (TD reaction 55).

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 2.42 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Luciano

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 1.87 landed/absorbed

    Luciano

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 49%

    Luciano

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 5.20

    Luciano

  • Ground game (tape)

    12 vs 44

    Luciano

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 58%

    Spasić

  • Fight IQ

    C 54 vs C+ 64 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Luciano

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Luciano

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 80% hips on the shot

    Luciano

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Luciano

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Luciano

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Luciano (ground 44) into Spasić (TD reaction 55).

    Luciano

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Luciano

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 34

    Spasić

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 26

    Luciano

  • Reach / length

    64.0" vs 65.0"

    Luciano

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Luciano

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 80%

    Spasić

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Luciano

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Spasić

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Spasić

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Spasić

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Spasić

Tape

SpasićMetricLuciano
0.00SLpM5.20
4.60SApM2.78
0%Str Acc49%
68%Str Def58%
0.00TD Avg1.30
0%TD Acc71%
85%TD Def80%
0.00Sub Avg0.26
0.10KD/150.10
5'4"Reach5'5"
32Age26

Marina Spasić

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Stephanie Luciano

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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