OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Mark Vologdin 91% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Borislav Nikolic / Decision - Unanimous)

Borislav Nikolic vs Mark Vologdin

Borislav Nikolic
SerbiaSerbia

Borislav Nikolic

“Zombee”

Unranked · 17-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 33 · IQ C+ 62

Secutor · Serbia

VS
Mark Vologdin
RussiaRussia

Mark Vologdin

Unranked · 12-5-2 · striker · Orthodox · 26 · IQ C 59

Allstars Training Center · Russia

Borislav Nikolic

9.0%

Mark Vologdin

91.0%

Model win probability · confidence 86%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Vologdin 91 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Mark Vologdin is the model side at 91.0% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets striker. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Vologdin 73 (B) vs Nikolic 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Vologdin (6.9 SLpM at 55%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Vologdin

    Vologdin 73 (B) vs Nikolic 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Vologdin (6.9 SLpM at 55%).

  2. 02

    Striking defense

    Vologdin

    Vologdin 73 (B) vs Nikolic 57 (C). Vologdin absorbs 2.17/min at 54% defense; Nikolic is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Nikolic

    Nikolic 37 (D) vs Vologdin 30 (D). Nikolic's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vologdin's entries.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Vologdin

    Vologdin 62 (C+) vs Nikolic 55 (C). When the shot comes, Vologdin stuffs it at 83% — Nikolic is at 85%.

Path · Nikolic

Nikolic wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Vologdin a long look at durability.

Path · Vologdin

Volume. Vologdin wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Nikolic a clean reset.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nikolic attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Vologdin is built as: Volume pressure striker. Nikolic is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Nikolic — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Vologdin 73 (B) vs Nikolic 38 (D). Hand speed / output lean Vologdin (6.9 SLpM at 55%). Striking defense: Vologdin 73 (B) vs Nikolic 57 (C). Vologdin absorbs 2.17/min at 54% defense; Nikolic is a softer target at 4.60 SApM. Counter punching: Nikolic 37 (D) vs Vologdin 30 (D). Nikolic's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Vologdin's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (55%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Nikolic attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

NikolicTraitVologdin
62 C+
IQ
59 C
20 D
Ground
22 D
57 C
Defense
73 B
37 D
Counter
30 D
59 C
Reaction
64 C+
38 D
Agility
73 B
55 C
TD react
62 C+
79 B+
Chin
83 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
18%
Submission
27%
Decision
55%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

18%

R2

13%

R3

15%

Dist

55%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.4 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets striker.

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs 4.76 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Vologdin

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 3.19 landed/absorbed

    Vologdin

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 6.93

    Vologdin

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 55%

    Vologdin

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 54%

    Nikolic

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Vologdin

  • Reach / length

    72.0" vs 65.0"

    Nikolic

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs B

    Vologdin

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 83% hips on the shot

    Vologdin

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 30

    Nikolic

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Nikolic

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Vologdin

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Nikolic

  • Age-adjusted curve

    33 vs 26

    Vologdin

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Vologdin

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Vologdin

  • Ground game (tape)

    20 vs 22

    Vologdin

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Vologdin

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 83%

    Nikolic

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Nikolic

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets striker.

    Nikolic

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Nikolic

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Nikolic

Tape

NikolicMetricVologdin
0.00SLpM6.93
4.60SApM2.17
0%Str Acc55%
68%Str Def54%
0.00TD Avg0.50
0%TD Acc14%
85%TD Def83%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'0"Reach5'5"
33Age26

Borislav Nikolic

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Mark Vologdin

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.