OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Noah Gugnon 52% · Decision · Distance · scored hit (Noah Gugnon / Submission)

Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon

Milos Janicic
MontenegroMontenegro

Milos Janicic

“The Cobra”

Unranked · 19-4 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 64

Borilački Klub CDS Novi Sad · Montenegro

VS
Noah Gugnon
FranceFrance

Noah Gugnon

Unranked · 10-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 25 · IQ C+ 68

Ghost Arena · France

Milos Janicic

48.2%

Noah Gugnon

51.8%

Model win probability · confidence 44%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gugnon 52 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Noah Gugnon is the model side at 51.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. hybrid meets hybrid. Takedown reaction is the clearest separator: Gugnon 69 (B) vs Janicic 61 (C+). When the shot comes, Gugnon stuffs it at 85% — Janicic is at 85%.

  1. 01

    Takedown reaction

    Gugnon

    Gugnon 69 (B) vs Janicic 61 (C+). When the shot comes, Gugnon stuffs it at 85% — Janicic is at 85%.

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Gugnon

    Gugnon 68 (C+) vs Janicic 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gugnon (C+ vs C+).

  3. 03

    Durability

    Gugnon

    Gugnon 81 (B+) vs Janicic 80 (B+). Gugnon has been finished by strikes 0 times; Janicic 0.

  4. 04

    Ground game

    Janicic

    Janicic 19 (D) vs Gugnon 19 (D). Janicic brings 0.0 TD/15 and 8 sub wins into Gugnon's 85% takedown defense.

Path · Janicic

Janicic wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Gugnon a long look at durability.

Path · Gugnon

Gugnon wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Janicic a long look at durability.

A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Gugnon is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Janicic is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is +4 toward Gugnon — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Takedown reaction: Gugnon 69 (B) vs Janicic 61 (C+). When the shot comes, Gugnon stuffs it at 85% — Janicic is at 85%. Fight IQ: Gugnon 68 (C+) vs Janicic 64 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Gugnon (C+ vs C+). Durability: Gugnon 81 (B+) vs Janicic 80 (B+). Gugnon has been finished by strikes 0 times; Janicic 0.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (52%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JanicicTraitGugnon
64 C+
IQ
68 C+
19 D
Ground
19 D
57 C
Defense
57 C
37 D
Counter
37 D
59 C
Reaction
59 C
39 D
Agility
39 D
61 C+
TD react
69 B
80 B+
Chin
81 B+

Method of victory

KO / TKO
21%
Submission
27%
Decision
52%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

19%

R2

13%

R3

16%

Dist

52%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.2 minutes.

Style matchup

hybrid meets hybrid.

  • Takedown reaction

    85% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Gugnon

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 64 vs C+ 68 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Gugnon

  • Age-adjusted curve

    29 vs 25

    Gugnon

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gugnon

  • Ground game (tape)

    19 vs 19

    Janicic

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Gugnon

  • Striking differential

    -4.60 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Janicic

  • Damage ratio

    0.00 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Janicic

  • Output (SLpM)

    0.00 vs 0.00

    Janicic

  • Striking efficiency

    0% vs 0%

    Janicic

  • Striking defense

    68% vs 68%

    Janicic

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Janicic

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 85% vs 85%

    Janicic

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 71.0"

    Janicic

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Janicic

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Janicic

  • Style interaction

    hybrid meets hybrid.

    Janicic

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Janicic

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Janicic

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C vs C

    Janicic

  • Counter punching

    37 vs 37

    Janicic

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Janicic

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Janicic

Tape

JanicicMetricGugnon
0.00SLpM0.00
4.60SApM4.60
0%Str Acc0%
68%Str Def68%
0.00TD Avg0.00
0%TD Acc0%
85%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach5'11"
29Age25

Milos Janicic

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Noah Gugnon

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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