OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Dustin Jacoby 87% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Muhammad Said / KO/TKO)

Dustin Jacoby vs Muhammad Said

Dustin Jacoby
USAUSA

Dustin Jacoby

“The Hanyak”

Unranked · 22-10-1 · striker · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C 52

FactoryX Muay Thai · USA

VS
Muhammad Said
RussiaRussia

Muhammad Said

“Kubik”

Unranked · 10-0 · hybrid · Orthodox · 30 · IQ B 72

GOR MMA · Russia

Dustin Jacoby

86.8%

Muhammad Said

13.2%

Model win probability · confidence 84%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Jacoby 87 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Dustin Jacoby is the model side at 86.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. striker meets hybrid. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Jacoby 61 (C+) vs Said 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jacoby (5.4 SLpM at 51%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Jacoby

    Jacoby 61 (C+) vs Said 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jacoby (5.4 SLpM at 51%).

  2. 02

    Fight IQ

    Said

    Said 72 (B) vs Jacoby 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Said (B vs C).

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Jacoby

    Jacoby 69 (B) vs Said 57 (C). Jacoby absorbs 2.71/min at 57% defense; Said is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Takedown reaction

    Said

    Said 69 (B) vs Jacoby 62 (C+). When the shot comes, Said stuffs it at 85% — Jacoby is at 84%.

Path · Jacoby

Volume. Jacoby wins ugly minutes at range, clutter the center, and never give Said a clean reset.

Path · Said

Said wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Jacoby a long look at durability.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Said attacking ground game with durability.

Full read

Style and location. The fight should spend most of its minutes at range. Jacoby is built as: Volume pressure striker. Said is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -20 toward Said — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Jacoby 61 (C+) vs Said 40 (D). Hand speed / output lean Jacoby (5.4 SLpM at 51%). Fight IQ: Said 72 (B) vs Jacoby 52 (C). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Said (B vs C). Striking defense: Jacoby 69 (B) vs Said 57 (C). Jacoby absorbs 2.71/min at 57% defense; Said is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (50%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Said attacking ground game with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

JacobyTraitSaid
52 C
IQ
72 B
18 D
Ground
16 D
69 B
Defense
57 C
43 D
Counter
39 D
64 C+
Reaction
61 C+
61 C+
Agility
40 D
62 C+
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
85 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
42%
Submission
8%
Decision
50%

The fight should spend most of its minutes at range.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

13%

R3

14%

Dist

50%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.8 minutes.

Style matchup

striker meets hybrid.

  • Striking differential

    2.69 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Jacoby

  • Damage ratio

    1.99 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Jacoby

  • Striking efficiency

    51% vs 0%

    Jacoby

  • Output (SLpM)

    5.40 vs 0.00

    Jacoby

  • Fight IQ

    C 52 vs B 72 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Said

  • Striking defense

    57% vs 68%

    Said

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Jacoby

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    B vs C

    Jacoby

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Said

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 30

    Said

  • Takedown reaction

    84% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Said

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 73.0"

    Jacoby

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Jacoby

  • Counter punching

    43 vs 39

    Jacoby

  • Ground game (tape)

    18 vs 16

    Jacoby

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Jacoby

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Jacoby

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 84% vs 85%

    Said

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Jacoby

  • Style interaction

    striker meets hybrid.

    Jacoby

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Jacoby

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Jacoby

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Jacoby

Tape

JacobyMetricSaid
5.40SLpM0.00
2.71SApM4.60
51%Str Acc0%
57%Str Def68%
0.32TD Avg0.00
25%TD Acc0%
84%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.59KD/150.28
6'4"Reach6'1"
38Age30

Dustin Jacoby

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Muhammad Said

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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