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UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Bantamweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Cody Gibson 84% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Abdul Hussein / Submission)

Cody Gibson vs Abdul Hussein

Cody Gibson
USAUSA

Cody Gibson

“The Renegade”

Unranked · 22-13 · hybrid · Orthodox · 38 · IQ C 54

Xtreme Couture · USA

VS
Abdul Hussein
FinlandFinland

Abdul Hussein

“ABBA”

Unranked · 16-2 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C 59

Espoon Kehähait · Finland

Cody Gibson

84.4%

Abdul Hussein

15.6%

Model win probability · confidence 82%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Gibson 84 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Cody Gibson is the model side at 84.4% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Gibson (ground 53) into Hussein (TD reaction 55). Ground game is the clearest separator: Gibson 53 (C) vs Hussein 21 (D). Gibson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Hussein's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Gibson

    Gibson 53 (C) vs Hussein 21 (D). Gibson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Hussein's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Durability

    Gibson

    Gibson 85 (A) vs Hussein 74 (B). Gibson has been finished by strikes 0 times; Hussein 0.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Gibson

    Gibson 64 (C+) vs Hussein 57 (C). Gibson absorbs 3.34/min at 61% defense; Hussein is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

  4. 04

    Counter punching

    Gibson

    Gibson 44 (D) vs Hussein 37 (D). Gibson's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Hussein's entries.

Path · Gibson

Gibson has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Hussein defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Hussein

Hussein has to stuff the first takedown (55 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 64 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hussein attacking punching agility with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Gibson is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Hussein is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -6 toward Hussein — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Gibson 53 (C) vs Hussein 21 (D). Gibson brings 2.0 TD/15 and 6 sub wins into Hussein's 85% takedown defense. Durability: Gibson 85 (A) vs Hussein 74 (B). Gibson has been finished by strikes 0 times; Hussein 0. Striking defense: Gibson 64 (C+) vs Hussein 57 (C). Gibson absorbs 3.34/min at 61% defense; Hussein is a softer target at 4.60 SApM.

The finish path leans the mat (35% submission). Once a takedown sticks, the neck becomes the whole fight. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Hussein attacking punching agility with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

GibsonTraitHussein
54 C
IQ
59 C
53 C
Ground
21 D
64 C+
Defense
57 C
44 D
Counter
37 D
56 C
Reaction
59 C
44 D
Agility
39 D
53 C
TD react
55 C
85 A
Chin
74 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
20%
Submission
35%
Decision
44%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

22%

R2

15%

R3

18%

Dist

44%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 10.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Gibson (ground 53) into Hussein (TD reaction 55).

  • Striking differential

    0.25 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Gibson

  • Striking efficiency

    52% vs 0%

    Gibson

  • Damage ratio

    1.07 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Gibson

  • Ground game (tape)

    53 vs 21

    Gibson

  • Output (SLpM)

    3.59 vs 0.00

    Gibson

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Gibson

  • Striking defense

    61% vs 68%

    Hussein

  • Fight IQ

    C 54 vs C 59 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Hussein

  • Reach / length

    71.0" vs 67.0"

    Gibson

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Hussein

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Gibson

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Gibson

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Gibson (ground 53) into Hussein (TD reaction 55).

    Gibson

  • Counter punching

    44 vs 37

    Gibson

  • Age-adjusted curve

    38 vs 29

    Hussein

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Gibson

  • Takedown reaction

    77% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Hussein

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Gibson

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Hussein

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 77% vs 85%

    Hussein

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Gibson

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Gibson

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Gibson

Tape

GibsonMetricHussein
3.59SLpM0.00
3.34SApM4.60
52%Str Acc0%
61%Str Def68%
2.01TD Avg0.00
38%TD Acc0%
77%TD Def85%
0.94Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
5'11"Reach5'7"
38Age29

Cody Gibson

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Abdul Hussein

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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