UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Featherweight · 3 rounds
Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Sean Woodson 57% · Decision · Distance · waiting on the result
Jack Jenkins vs Sean Woodson
AustraliaJack Jenkins
“Phar”
Unranked · 14-4 · striker · Switch · 32 · IQ C+ 67
Absolute Mixed Martial Arts · Australia
USASean Woodson
“The Sniper”
Unranked · 13-2-1 · striker · Orthodox · 34 · IQ C+ 65
Wolves Den Training Center · USA
Jack Jenkins
42.7%
Sean Woodson
57.3%
Model win probability · confidence 65%
Desk
42.7% / 57.3%
Market
43.2% / 56.8%
Moneyline
+123 / -144
Edge
−0.5% Woodson
Pinnacle moneyline, two-way de-vigged. Desk tracks the market on Woodson. Not a betting tip.
Why the model leans this way
Woodson 57 — the tape favors volume pressure striker
Sean Woodson is the model side at 57.3% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly. Ground game is the clearest separator: Jenkins 46 (D) vs Woodson 33 (D). Jenkins brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Woodson's 100% takedown defense.
- 01
Ground game
JenkinsJenkins 46 (D) vs Woodson 33 (D). Jenkins brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Woodson's 100% takedown defense.
- 02
Counter punching
JenkinsJenkins 56 (C) vs Woodson 47 (D). Jenkins's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Woodson's entries.
- 03
Takedown reaction
WoodsonWoodson 67 (C+) vs Jenkins 59 (C). When the shot comes, Woodson stuffs it at 100% — Jenkins is at 83%.
- 04
Fight IQ
JenkinsJenkins 67 (C+) vs Woodson 65 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Jenkins (C+ vs C+).
Path · Jenkins
Jenkins has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Woodson defend the neck instead of throwing. It is the only reliable flip if the pocket goes cold.
Path · Woodson
Woodson has to stuff the first takedown (67 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 65 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.
A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number.
Full read
Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Woodson is built as: Volume pressure striker. Jenkins is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is -3 toward Jenkins — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.
The edges that move the number. Ground game: Jenkins 46 (D) vs Woodson 33 (D). Jenkins brings 2.0 TD/15 and 3 sub wins into Woodson's 100% takedown defense. Counter punching: Jenkins 56 (C) vs Woodson 47 (D). Jenkins's return is the live one (0.00 KD/15, 3 KOs) against Woodson's entries. Takedown reaction: Woodson 67 (C+) vs Jenkins 59 (C). When the shot comes, Woodson stuffs it at 100% — Jenkins is at 83%.
The finish path leans strikes (37% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. A one-score fight on the model. Any three-minute pocket explosion or a stuck takedown against the grain wipes a lot of this number. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.
Style & IQ board
Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.
Method of victory
Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.
Duration
R1
27%
R2
16%
R3
17%
Dist
40%
Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.
Style matchup
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
Striking differential
0.75 vs 2.35 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)
WoodsonDamage ratio
1.20 vs 1.69 landed/absorbed
WoodsonReach / length
68.0" vs 78.0"
WoodsonGround game (tape)
46 vs 33
JenkinsStriking efficiency
61% vs 50%
JenkinsOutput (SLpM)
4.51 vs 5.76
WoodsonTakedown reaction
83% vs 100% hips on the shot
WoodsonCounter punching
56 vs 47
JenkinsFight IQ
C+ 67 vs C+ 65 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments
JenkinsGrappling composite
TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)
JenkinsCardio proxy
Output sustainability + distance rate
JenkinsStriking defense
64% vs 61%
JenkinsRecency form
Opp.-adjusted last 6/5 UFC rows
WoodsonStrength of schedule
Opp. quality 49 vs 55
WoodsonTakedown mismatch
TD def 84% vs 90%
WoodsonAge-adjusted curve
32 vs 34
JenkinsPocket defense (tape)
C+ vs C+
WoodsonStyle interaction
Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Open-stance look favors the southpaw / switch side slightly.
JenkinsTiming & reaction
Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy
WoodsonLayoff / rust
Time since last fight
JenkinsDurability
0 vs 0 KO losses
JenkinsPunching agility
Output × accuracy × age curve
JenkinsChampionship / 5-round
Three-round fight
Jenkins
Tape
Jack Jenkins
Fighter 5152409
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 5109762
Submission · R3 2:06
Fighter 3089633
KO/TKO · R3 0:48
Fighter 4040926
KO/TKO · R2 3:19
Jamall Emmers
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4893607
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Sean Woodson
Dan Ige
KO/TKO · R3 1:12
Fighter 4239738
KO/TKO · R1 4:58
Fighter 2552906
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Charles Jourdain
Decision - Split · R3 5:00
Fighter 4686735
Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00
Fighter 3074813
Draw · R3 5:00
Your pick
Desk briefing
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