OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Heavyweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Louie Sutherland 79% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (José Montanha / Submission)

Louie Sutherland vs José Montanha

Louie Sutherland
EnglandEngland

Louie Sutherland

“Vanilla Gorilla”

Unranked · 11-6 · wrestler · Orthodox · 32 · IQ C 59

Team Titan · England

VS
José Montanha
BrazilBrazil

José Montanha

Unranked · 7-1 · hybrid · Orthodox · 29 · IQ C+ 67

Gile Ribeiro Team / Noguchi Team · Brazil

Louie Sutherland

78.8%

José Montanha

21.2%

Model win probability · confidence 75%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Sutherland 79 — the tape favors hybrid who can change levels

Louie Sutherland is the model side at 78.8% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Grappler historical edge: Sutherland (ground 62) into Montanha (TD reaction 69). Ground game is the clearest separator: Sutherland 62 (C+) vs Montanha 21 (D). Sutherland brings 5.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Montanha's 85% takedown defense.

  1. 01

    Ground game

    Sutherland

    Sutherland 62 (C+) vs Montanha 21 (D). Sutherland brings 5.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Montanha's 85% takedown defense.

  2. 02

    Takedown reaction

    Montanha

    Montanha 69 (B) vs Sutherland 52 (C). When the shot comes, Montanha stuffs it at 85% — Sutherland is at 65%.

  3. 03

    Counter punching

    Sutherland

    Sutherland 53 (C) vs Montanha 37 (D). Sutherland's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Montanha's entries.

  4. 04

    Punching agility

    Sutherland

    Sutherland 49 (D) vs Montanha 39 (D). Hand speed / output lean Sutherland (1.8 SLpM at 80%).

Path · Sutherland

Sutherland has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Montanha defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

Path · Montanha

Montanha has to stuff the first takedown (69 TD-reaction), keep this standing, and hunt a pocket that grades 61 on defense. Wrestling is the death lane.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Montanha attacking punching agility with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish. Sutherland is built as: Hybrid who can change levels — suspect hips against the shot. Montanha is built as: Hybrid who can change levels. Fight IQ delta is -8 toward Montanha — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Ground game: Sutherland 62 (C+) vs Montanha 21 (D). Sutherland brings 5.0 TD/15 and 0 sub wins into Montanha's 85% takedown defense. Takedown reaction: Montanha 69 (B) vs Sutherland 52 (C). When the shot comes, Montanha stuffs it at 85% — Sutherland is at 65%. Counter punching: Sutherland 53 (C) vs Montanha 37 (D). Sutherland's return is the live one (0.10 KD/15, 0 KOs) against Montanha's entries.

The clock is live — decision is the modal ending (57%). Minutes and control matter more than a single shot. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Montanha attacking punching agility with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

SutherlandTraitMontanha
59 C
IQ
67 C+
62 C+
Ground
21 D
61 C+
Defense
57 C
53 C
Counter
37 D
57 C
Reaction
59 C
49 D
Agility
39 D
52 C
TD react
69 B
85 A
Chin
76 B

Method of victory

KO / TKO
30%
Submission
13%
Decision
57%

Wrestling entries, fence control, and mat time should decide the scorecards — or the finish.

Duration

R1

17%

R2

12%

R3

14%

Dist

57%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 11.6 minutes.

Style matchup

Grappler historical edge: Sutherland (ground 62) into Montanha (TD reaction 69).

  • Striking efficiency

    80% vs 0%

    Sutherland

  • Striking differential

    -2.16 vs -4.60 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Sutherland

  • Ground game (tape)

    62 vs 21

    Sutherland

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Sutherland

  • Damage ratio

    0.46 vs 0.00 landed/absorbed

    Sutherland

  • Output (SLpM)

    1.81 vs 0.00

    Sutherland

  • Takedown reaction

    65% vs 85% hips on the shot

    Montanha

  • Counter punching

    53 vs 37

    Sutherland

  • Fight IQ

    C 59 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Montanha

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Montanha

  • Striking defense

    64% vs 68%

    Montanha

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Sutherland

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Sutherland

  • Style interaction

    Grappler historical edge: Sutherland (ground 62) into Montanha (TD reaction 69).

    Sutherland

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs C

    Sutherland

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 65% vs 85%

    Montanha

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Montanha

  • Age-adjusted curve

    32 vs 29

    Montanha

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Sutherland

  • Reach / length

    76.0" vs 76.0"

    Sutherland

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Sutherland

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Sutherland

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Sutherland

Tape

SutherlandMetricMontanha
1.81SLpM0.00
3.97SApM4.60
80%Str Acc0%
64%Str Def68%
4.95TD Avg0.00
43%TD Acc0%
65%TD Def85%
0.00Sub Avg0.00
0.10KD/150.10
6'4"Reach6'4"
32Age29

Louie Sutherland

No recent UFC tape in the book.

José Montanha

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

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