OctagonEdge

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs Salkilld · Lightweight · 3 rounds

Opening locked Aug 19, 2026 · Billy Quarantillo 80% · Decision · Distance · scored miss (Diego Ferreira / Decision - Unanimous)

Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo

Diego Ferreira
BrazilBrazil

Diego Ferreira

Unranked · 20-7 · striker · Orthodox · 41 · IQ C+ 62

Fortis MMA · Brazil

VS
Billy Quarantillo
USAUSA

Billy Quarantillo

Unranked · 18-8 · striker · Orthodox · 37 · IQ C+ 67

Gracie Tampa South · USA

Diego Ferreira

20.5%

Billy Quarantillo

79.5%

Model win probability · confidence 76%

No market posted yet.

Why the model leans this way

Quarantillo 80 — the tape favors volume pressure striker

Billy Quarantillo is the model side at 79.5% because the largest live edges sit where this fight is likely to be fought. Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight. Punching agility is the clearest separator: Quarantillo 78 (B+) vs Ferreira 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Quarantillo (7.4 SLpM at 62%).

  1. 01

    Punching agility

    Quarantillo

    Quarantillo 78 (B+) vs Ferreira 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Quarantillo (7.4 SLpM at 62%).

  2. 02

    Ground game

    Quarantillo

    Quarantillo 46 (D) vs Ferreira 37 (D). Quarantillo brings 1.5 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ferreira's 82% takedown defense.

  3. 03

    Striking defense

    Quarantillo

    Quarantillo 73 (B) vs Ferreira 67 (C+). Quarantillo absorbs 2.00/min at 53% defense; Ferreira is a softer target at 2.95 SApM.

  4. 04

    Fight IQ

    Quarantillo

    Quarantillo 67 (C+) vs Ferreira 62 (C+). Problem-solving and win-lane diversity sit with Quarantillo (C+ vs C+).

Path · Ferreira

Ferreira wins by forcing the fight into durability and denying Quarantillo a long look at durability.

Path · Quarantillo

Quarantillo has to wrestle early, chain the second shot, and make Ferreira defend the neck instead of throwing. That is the percentage path.

This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ferreira attacking counter punching with durability.

Full read

Style and location. Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it. Quarantillo is built as: Volume pressure striker. Ferreira is built as: Pocket striker. Fight IQ delta is +5 toward Quarantillo — that is composure, win-lane diversity, and whether they solve a second problem when the first look dies.

The edges that move the number. Punching agility: Quarantillo 78 (B+) vs Ferreira 51 (C). Hand speed / output lean Quarantillo (7.4 SLpM at 62%). Ground game: Quarantillo 46 (D) vs Ferreira 37 (D). Quarantillo brings 1.5 TD/15 and 5 sub wins into Ferreira's 82% takedown defense. Striking defense: Quarantillo 73 (B) vs Ferreira 67 (C+). Quarantillo absorbs 2.00/min at 53% defense; Ferreira is a softer target at 2.95 SApM.

The finish path leans strikes (37% KO/TKO vs 23% submission). One clean read in the pocket can flip a close card. This is a firm lean, not a lock. The upset script is Ferreira attacking counter punching with durability. These trait marks are derived from FightMetric rates, career method shares, and loaded bout rows — reaction time and agility are proxies, not stopwatch numbers. The model folds the same scores into win probability, so a hole on this card is a hole in the percentage.

Style & IQ board

Fight IQ, ground game, defense, counter punching, reaction, agility, and takedown reaction — scored from tape and folded into the win number above.

FerreiraTraitQuarantillo
62 C+
IQ
67 C+
37 D
Ground
46 D
67 C+
Defense
73 B
40 D
Counter
39 D
62 C+
Reaction
60 C
51 C
Agility
78 B+
68 C+
TD react
63 C+
82 B+
Chin
84 A

Method of victory

KO / TKO
37%
Submission
23%
Decision
40%

Almost exclusively standing. Power and volume decide it.

Duration

R1

28%

R2

16%

R3

16%

Dist

40%

Most likely: Distance. Expected 9.9 minutes.

Style matchup

Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

  • Striking differential

    1.75 vs 5.44 SLpM−SApM (recency / opp. adjusted)

    Quarantillo

  • Damage ratio

    1.59 vs 3.72 landed/absorbed

    Quarantillo

  • Output (SLpM)

    4.70 vs 7.44

    Quarantillo

  • Striking efficiency

    45% vs 62%

    Quarantillo

  • Punching agility

    Output × accuracy × age curve

    Quarantillo

  • Ground game (tape)

    37 vs 46

    Quarantillo

  • Striking defense

    59% vs 53%

    Ferreira

  • Fight IQ

    C+ 62 vs C+ 67 — composure, win-lane diversity, adjustments

    Quarantillo

  • Reach / length

    74.0" vs 70.0"

    Ferreira

  • Grappling composite

    TD avg × acc × def + control + submission threat (adj.)

    Quarantillo

  • Pocket defense (tape)

    C+ vs B

    Quarantillo

  • Takedown reaction

    82% vs 79% hips on the shot

    Ferreira

  • Cardio proxy

    Output sustainability + distance rate

    Quarantillo

  • Age-adjusted curve

    41 vs 37

    Quarantillo

  • Timing & reaction

    Defense + absorb + knockdown timing proxy

    Ferreira

  • Recency form

    Opp.-adjusted last 0/0 UFC rows

    Ferreira

  • Durability

    0 vs 0 KO losses

    Quarantillo

  • Counter punching

    40 vs 39

    Ferreira

  • Takedown mismatch

    TD def 82% vs 79%

    Ferreira

  • Strength of schedule

    Opp. quality 50 vs 50

    Ferreira

  • Style interaction

    Striker vs striker. The pocket and the counter become the whole fight.

    Ferreira

  • Layoff / rust

    Time since last fight

    Ferreira

  • Championship / 5-round

    Three-round fight

    Ferreira

Tape

FerreiraMetricQuarantillo
4.70SLpM7.44
2.95SApM2.00
45%Str Acc62%
59%Str Def53%
0.82TD Avg1.47
30%TD Acc24%
82%TD Def79%
0.55Sub Avg1.02
0.52KD/150.43
6'2"Reach5'10"
41Age37

Diego Ferreira

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Billy Quarantillo

No recent UFC tape in the book.

Your pick

Desk briefing

Sign in to request a written analyst note on this fight.